ATL: Ex NINE

[psyclone]

i agree with the above post....1 in 1000. it's a lotto ticket at best. and there were plenty of us in this thread who were rightly skeptical of this thing becoming anything of consequence all along. Loving this late October weather here on the central florida gulf coast...warm sunny days and clear cool nights. current dewpoint in Tampa is 55...talk about a sterile, non tropical atmosphere.

Just move a little farther south in FL and there is plenty of tropical moisture. I do not know how posters who have had bad model data for the last few days can be so sure of their pronouncements. The corrected models runs will not start until later today.

Even south florida and the keys will be scoured out for the weekend. Enjoy the upcoming fair weather.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


$$
Forecaster Blake

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity still pretty good:

[wxman57]

It's now Invest 94L. No change in development potential (little or none).

[cycloneye]

This new invest is for the Remnants of TD NINE so all the discussions will be posted here.

AL, 94, 2014102318, , BEST, 0, 181N, 900W, 20, 1007, LO

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday. This system has a small chance of
regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two
or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake


Thread that was the topic for TD NINE/Remnants.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116882&start=0

[cycloneye]

Due that this has now has been designated as Invest 94L,this thread will be locked and the discussions will be posted at the Invest 94L discussion thread.

[gatorcane]

New convection burst a little south of the center of this invest, saved image below:

[WPBWeather]

Yep, I thought there would be one.

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously? I'm just speechless.

[wxman57]

Seriously? I'm just speechless.

Remember, the designation of an "invest" does not imply increased (or any) development potential. It simply means that someone at the NHC wants to continue to run models on the remnants of TD Nine.

[cycloneye]

Text of 18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 23 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.1°N and 90°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 130 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[Sanibel]

The center is starting to move towards water now. If you think this is weak take a look at the surface spiral entrained to the Low center in the Gulf. Then look at the black IR bursts in the shear displaced convection near Cuba.

I don't see a 130 degree track. More like 105-110.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

A rotation is still evident over land. I would think it would have to continue until the front pulls out so it stops stealing all it's resources.

Or the front takes it with it and this show can finally end

[floridasun78]

The center is starting to move towards water now. If you think this is weak take a look at the surface spiral entrained to the Low center in the Gulf. Then look at the black IR bursts in the shear displaced convection near Cuba.

I don't see a 130 degree track. More like 105-110.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

not suppose move over water untill sat not tonight what nhc show when was td9

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Huge trail of extremely dry air behind it.

Circulation to needs to emerge down next to Belize if it wants a shot AND wait it out the next couple of days

[gatorcane]

The center is starting to move towards water now. If you think this is weak take a look at the surface spiral entrained to the Low center in the Gulf. Then look at the black IR bursts in the shear displaced convection near Cuba.

I don't see a 130 degree track. More like 105-110.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

not suppose move over water untill sat not tonight what nhc show when was td9

Supposed to be back over water by late tomorrow, according to the last outlook from NHC:

"The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine over the southern Yucatan
peninsula are expected to move eastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by late Friday."

[wxman57]

It's hard to identify a "center" of anything. Convection is decreasing and I don't see much rotation, if any. Clouds seem to be moving SE toward southern Belize. If the GFS hadn't been trying to develop this into a hurricane a few days ago then it would likely go unnoticed today.

[AdamFirst]

How come a new invest was tagged? For model purposes?

[wxman57]

How come a new invest was tagged? For model purposes?

Yes, someone at the NHC wanted to keep the models going on Nine's remnants in the slight chance that redevelopment would occur in the western Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

Whatever low there still is is entering northern Belieze as we speak, may be offshore earlier than thought

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products