ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

You know there's a reason it's not upgraded yet and those at the NHC do know a lot more than most of us here. The LLC is well organized but it really doesn't look like a developing or strengthening system at this time at least if I were to compare it to past storms.

[ozonepete]

SeGaBob wrote:
is that good or is it bad for development?



Mostly neutral, really. Aric is just pointing out that a new center may be trying to form, as is common with disturbances or TDs that are trying to establish a core circulation from the surface to mid-levels. Though you could say that the fact that it's trying to consolidate a center while convection is expanding usually means that it's trying hard to consolidate. In these cases you need to know what the future conditions will be, and since dry air and shear are lessening the overall picture is positive.

[SeGaBob]

Is that good or is it bad for development?

means its less organized.. better yet it re-organizing. It does mean its weakening or not going to develop...

Ok thanks... I hope I'm not bothering you with these questions.

[Aric Dunn]

Is that good or is it bad for development?

means its less organized.. better yet it re-organizing. It does mean its weakening or not going to develop...

Ok thanks... I hope I'm not bothering you with these questions.

not a problem...


btw.. that was supposed to say "it does not mean"

[tropicwatch]

The long range radar out of Melbourne Florida is kind of interesting. Gives the appearance that the COC is very close to Grand Bahama's.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-rad ... ch%2c%20FL

[CDO62]

I wish this low would dissipate or move away. It's squelching our much needed afternoon sea-breeze induced storms over here on Florida's West coast.

[AdamFirst]

Extremely heavy rain here in the Miami metro. Street flooding occurring around the FIU campus. Storm motion is north to south as well, so these storms are probably under the influence from 91L.

[Hurricane_Luis]

The NHC mentions-

Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.

TD status is very close. But will have to wait until the next advisory. Could they issue a special advisory?

[TheAustinMan]

Melbourne radar loop of 91L over the past eight or so hours, courtesy Wunderground.

[Aric Dunn]

after doing a little analysis.. the eastern vort appears to have more of the rotational energy and of course the instability. the initial vort we saw may dissipate as it gets stretched out by the much stronger and larger inflow into the convection associated with the eastern vort.

[Aric Dunn]

Melbourne radar loop of 91L over the past eight or so hours, courtesy Wunderground.

in that loop you can see the original center elongated toward the end.

[Hammy]

Is the swirl that we've been watching all day possibly a mesovortex? It seems to have taken a pretty fast dive to the south over the last few hours compared with earlier.

[Frank2]

It does appear the LLC was more an eddie than anything - it seems to be rotating around a larger circulation center at this point, but as Max Mayfiled said at 6 pm the system is not as well organized as 24 hours ago - right now that dry air to the north is really supressing it...

[SeGaBob]

My guess for the 8pm TWO is that they maintain the same chances. I wouldn't be surprised if they said it became a little less organized.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

LLC has moved into an area of better UL conditions, you can see how the cloud tops are not been blown away to the south like it was doing yesterday, I would suspect that later tonight or tomorrow morning convection will really get going near the LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

radar indicating possible increase on the eastern side again. if enough convection can develop then all the vorts will consolidate.

[NDG]

radar indicating possible increase on the eastern side again. if enough convection can develop then all the vorts will consolidate.

Did I missed something on satellite loop all day, I only saw one main LLC on hd satellite loop and the recon flight did not indicate any multiple vorts.

[Aric Dunn]

radar indicating possible increase on the eastern side again. if enough convection can develop then all the vorts will consolidate.

Did I missed something on satellite loop all day, I only saw one main LLC on hd satellite loop and the recon flight did not indicate any multiple vorts.

yeah, on their last pass they had a hard time finding it.. and on sat you can see the vort come out of the eastern convection.. go back a couple pages.

[tropicwatch]

Its possible that the COC is relocating under the CDO.

[Aric Dunn]

Its possible that the COC is relocating under the CDO.

quite possible on the edge of the eastern convection .... radar reveals a lot