ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

In this loop 96L is seen moving rapidly and appears more like a wave (IMO):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It is moving very fast:

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED 310 NM SE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 15N56W MOVING NW AT 20-25
KT. A TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 57W-63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[SFLcane]

Seems to models are not developing this much till Bahamas were winds and sst's look great.

[Sanibel]

It could miss the islands completely. I think as ragged as this is it has structure that could take off.

[sponger]

Should make for an interesting weekend.

[Weatherboy1]

We're getting a nice uptick in convection here, with deeper reds and yellows spreading on the IR satellite imagery late in the day. Not much going on directly over the LLC identified by recon ... yet ... but I have a feeling 96 might finally "pop" tonight. We'll see

(Just my opinion, as always!)

[abajan]

It is moving very fast:

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED 310 NM SE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 15N56W MOVING NW AT 20-25
KT ...

That's incredibly fast! I wouldn't have guessed it was moving that quickly.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the TUTT low NNW of Puerto Rico that you can see spinning on this WV loop, is flattening out and weakening. Should see an excellent upper-level environment for this invest out in front of it. Main issues will be possible land interaction and mid-level dry air.

[Hurricaneman]

The low they're tracking is going that fast but it seems the disturbance seems to be moving slower than the low which probably means its a circulation revolving around a larger broad low

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

The low they're tracking is going that fast but it seems the disturbance seems to be moving slower than the low which probably means its a circulation revolving around a larger broad low

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am wondering that too - it seems the broad low to the SW of the LLC the NHC has marked is moving to the West. Some models think that will be the low that may end up developing.

If you take a step back and look at the entire area of convection from 96L (the entire blob so to speak), seems the system is moving west now and not gaining much latitude any longer. Several models have it moving due west south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before it starts slowing and feeling the weakness.

[StormingB81]

Shades of Tropical storm Debby in 2012! Remember that one and the models all over...

[NDG]

The most dominant weak LLC looks to be nudging closer to the convection to the NW, upgrade later tonight or tomorrow morning? I think so, IMO.

[chaser1]

This might be the little engine that could? lol jk it should develop, but million dollar question is....where does it go....

I've created a foolproof method of determining where 96L will end up: http://bit.ly/96LWheel

LOL

, that's great!

[Alyono]

something to consider, there are TWO ways this could impact the USA. One is to move very fast in the short term, like the 12Z HWRF. It makes it far enough west to miss the trough. The other is to move slower than it is moving, which would result in it being trapped by the ridge

[somethingfunny]

something to consider, there are TWO ways this could impact the USA. One is to move very fast in the short term, like the 12Z HWRF. It makes it far enough west to miss the trough. The other is to move slower than it is moving, which would result in it being trapped by the ridge

Are you surprised by 96L's current speed and direction? I expected it to fester in this area for days but it seems like it's separated from the ITCZ faster than anticipated.

[SFLcane]

something to consider, there are TWO ways this could impact the USA. One is to move very fast in the short term, like the 12Z HWRF. It makes it far enough west to miss the trough. The other is to move slower than it is moving, which would result in it being trapped by the ridge

Well it's racing now..

[chaser1]

It is moving very fast:

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED 310 NM SE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 15N56W MOVING NW AT 20-25
KT ...

That's incredibly fast! I wouldn't have guessed it was moving that quickly.

I'll go a step further....., I almost get the impression that there may be a mid level center further west yet, and in the midst of the greater bursting convection to the west of the LLC. Was pretty sure this was consolidating into one singular vertical system last night, and today it nearly looked like it had, but............... "It don't come easy"

[floridasun78]

wfor in miami showing 96l may move north after pass east of Bahama not get close south fl but he say could change later stay tune

[gatorcane]

Anybody see a broad circulation at 16N, 60W heading nearly due west? This one could end up taking over...

[Alyono]

something to consider, there are TWO ways this could impact the USA. One is to move very fast in the short term, like the 12Z HWRF. It makes it far enough west to miss the trough. The other is to move slower than it is moving, which would result in it being trapped by the ridge

Are you surprised by 96L's current speed and direction? I expected it to fester in this area for days but it seems like it's separated from the ITCZ faster than anticipated.

wasn't expecting it to move at 16-18 kts today. I was thinking more like 13-14 kts

[ObsessedMiami]

Phil Ferro, Miami Met, is saying that it could either a: go north into the weakness and be drawn towards the Bahamas or B) become trapped under the high pressure ridge and be a Caribbean Cruiser. I haven't seen any discussion lately of a Caribbean cruiser possibility on here.