EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, hard to argue against the NHC landfall intensity of 110 kt, although you could make a case between 105 and 115.

[tropicwatch]

Santa Rosa

Station ID: IBCMEXIC2
Lat: 23.09 Lon: -109.70 Elev: 120 ft

Current
Forecast
Graph
76 °
Feels Like 76° F
76 mph
Wind From E
Gusts 97 mph
Dew Point: 76° F
Humidity: 98 %
Precip Rate: 1.89 in/hr
Precip Accum: 4.16 in
Pressure: 28.81 in
Visibility: - mi
Updated 10 min 2 sec ago

[CrazyC83]

As for the pressure, given the distances between the Los Cabos report, the iCyclone report (943 with breezy conditions) and the landfall location, I would say 931mb at landfall.

[Kingarabian]

As for the pressure, given the distances between the Los Cabos report, the iCyclone report (943 with breezy conditions) and the landfall location, I would say 931mb at landfall.

Maybe lower since it has lost some of its size.


Historic night for sure.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

they had ~ 20 kt winds with 943. How are we getting below 930mb pressures?

Lets not inflate the landfall intensity. That seems to be an issue here where intensity estimates are inflated

[Kingarabian]

they had ~ 20 kt winds with 943. How are we getting below 930mb pressures?

Lets not inflate the landfall intensity. That seems to be an issue here where intensity estimates are inflated

Well I was just thinking that since it had such a low pressure despite its size (923?) and the big difference in correlation in regards to its surface winds that it may have held up to pre landfall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

From icyclone inside the hotel

[Kingarabian]

From icyclone inside the hotel

WOW!

[Alyono]

probably was around 100 kts/940mb at landfall based upon the data. Odile likely continued to weaken after the aircraft left. The data indicates that this occurred

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 150557
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD AS EYE OF ODILE MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 110.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. A WIND GUST TO 114
MPH...183 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR SANTA ROSA MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 943 MB WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

[Brent]

Latest report from icyclone is brutal:

Midnight. CODE RED. At 11:46 pm, the backside of the eyeall hit-- no buildup-- just all of a sudden the howling and banging started up again. The hotel manager joked that it sounds like gunshots. Then at maybe midnight... BOOM!!!!! The entire glass wall of the lobby EXPLODED-- with glass, pieces of building, everything flying to the other end of the lobby. Like an explosion in an action movie. A hotel worked and I ducked under the reception counter-- I physically grabbed his head and pushed it under the counter. Glass was everywhere-- my leg gashed-- blood. We craweld into the office-- me, the worker, and the manager-- but the ceiling started to lift up. After five minutes of debate-- breathing hard like three trapped animals-- we made a run for it-- went running like HELL across the lobby-- which is now basically just OUTSIDE-- and made it to the stairwell and an interior hallway. Two nice women dressed my wound. I don't know where my cameradude, Steven, is. I need to find him. People are scared.

[Kingarabian]

Latest report from icyclone is brutal:

Midnight. CODE RED. At 11:46 pm, the backside of the eyeall hit-- no buildup-- just all of a sudden the howling and banging started up again. The hotel manager joked that it sounds like gunshots. Then at maybe midnight... BOOM!!!!! The entire glass wall of the lobby EXPLODED-- with glass, pieces of building, everything flying to the other end of the lobby. Like an explosion in an action movie. A hotel worked and I ducked under the reception counter-- I physically grabbed his head and pushed it under the counter. Glass was everywhere-- my leg gashed-- blood. We craweld into the office-- me, the worker, and the manager-- but the ceiling started to lift up. After five minutes of debate-- breathing hard like three trapped animals-- we made a run for it-- went running like HELL across the lobby-- which is now basically just OUTSIDE-- and made it to the stairwell and an interior hallway. Two nice women dressed my wound. I don't know where my cameradude, Steven, is. I need to find him. People are scared.

Odile meant business from the beginning.


The NHC did its best to warn the people of Baja California. Almost as if they were pleading...

Thankfully that iCyclone person is experienced and knew what to do.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, that report from Josh is outrageous!!

In Haiyan someone with Josh had his leg cut...now he got the same. Yep, this is big and I think the MSM will be showing Odile's rampage shortly.

[Socalsgrl]

Was just reading all the posts on iCyclone's facebook page. What they are doing is amazing and terrifying all at the same time. Kudos to them for taking this on. Stay safe out there! Prayers to Baja are going out tonight.

[jlauderdal]

Was just reading all the posts on iCyclone's facebook page. What they are doing is amazing and terrifying all at the same time. Kudos to them for taking this on. Stay safe out there! Prayers to Baja are going out tonight.

I was at the Palmilla in May, would have been a perfect place as it was a few miles north of landfall and its on a point so you get a great view south and then north.

They just showed Josh's video on TWC..amazing watching that pile of furniture get pushed back. This system couldnt have picked a better landfall spot to do max damage for both cabo and san jose del cabo.

meanwhile in the atlantic,

[Socalsgrl]

Edouardo decided not to try it luck in ur neck of the woods I saw.

[hurricanes1234]

From icyclone inside the hotel

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/14 ... 9d4ae9.jpg

What is going on there?!

[jlauderdal]

From icyclone inside the hotel

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/14 ... 9d4ae9.jpg

What is going on there?!

they stacked the furniture up against the glass to try and stop it from crashing inward..FAIL

[NDG]

I can't imagine the damage in the elevated areas of Cabo.

[Yellow Evan]

1 am. I found Steve-- we were tearfully reunited. I say tearfully because I was so happy to find him alive and OK in the chaos I got emotional. After roaming the flooded, dark hallways alone, I found him sheltered in a bathroom next to the lobby with two other guests. The lobby itself is a heap of wreckage. Steve was in the cloud of flying glass as that wall exploded. Like us, he had to run like hell-- and like me, he was bloodied. Steve saw me and my partners scampering like rats across the lobby earlier-- when we made our escape-- but I didn't hear his calling over the roar of the wind. What you see here is my leg-- dressed in a towel-- Steve's wound dressed in duct tape, and a shoe he fashioned out of duct tape (because he lost his). We're in an interior hall now. We're OK. I think the wind is quieting down. I think. Parts of the hotel are smashed beyond recognition.

Now that the adrenaline has worn off, can I go back to being a nerd, please? Here's a quick summary of iCyclone's chase of Hurricane ODILE! This is all preliminary-- I need to review lots of video footage, etc., to reconstruct the timeline. Our lowest pressure was 943.1 mb a little after 11 pm-- off from the NHC's operational track, which shows the center closest to us at about 10 pm. We were in the eye, ~5 n mi from the center of it-- and that suggests the central pressure was most certainly lower than 940 mb.