EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Marie deepened from 983 mb to 929 mb in just 24 hours, that's 54 mb. Insane for the EPAC then!

[Yellow Evan]

Marie deepened from 983 mb to 929 mb in just 24 hours, that's 54 mb. Insane for the EPAC then!

Not as high as Linda. That was ridiculous.

[euro6208]

If this goes to 145 knots, it would be the strongest TC worldwide...If 140 knots, then a 4 way tie...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Marie deepened from 983 mb to 929 mb in just 24 hours, that's 54 mb. Insane for the EPAC then!

Not as high as Linda. That was ridiculous.

By how many mb then for Linda?

If so, Marie is still insane, given that deepened a lot faster than many other Pacific hurricanes.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 15:56:59 N Lon : 111:20:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 940.8mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.7 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +16.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.9 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If this goes to 145 knots, it would be the strongest TC worldwide...If 140 knots, then a 4 way tie...

If you base it on atmospheric pressure, Marie could still be stronger than those two [Halong and Genevieve] because of its relatively large size.

[Yellow Evan]

Marie deepened from 983 mb to 929 mb in just 24 hours, that's 54 mb. Insane for the EPAC then!

Not as high as Linda. That was ridiculous.

By how many mb then for Linda?

If so, Marie is still insane, given that deepened a lot faster than many other Pacific hurricanes.

72 mbar. From 974 to 902mbar.

[Yellow Evan]

Soccoro Island should be getting TS winds soon. Core should remain well offshore though.

[jaguarjace]

Visible and enhanced Infrared gif.

[supercane4867]

Marie deepened from 983 mb to 929 mb in just 24 hours, that's 54 mb. Insane for the EPAC then!

Not as high as Linda. That was ridiculous.

In this case the actual pressure is likely lower than NHC estimates

I recall Hurricane Juliette of 2001 which was also fairly large with a small eye had recon confirmed the pressure to be almost 20mb lower than earlier advisory without recon

I believe both Linda and Rick once dropped below 900mb

[Yellow Evan]

Marie deepened from 983 mb to 929 mb in just 24 hours, that's 54 mb. Insane for the EPAC then!

Not as high as Linda. That was ridiculous.

In this case the actual pressure is likely lower than NHC estimates

I recall Hurricane Juliette of 2001 which was also fairly large with a small eye had recon confirmed the pressure to be almost 20mb lower than earlier advisory without recon

I believe both Linda and Rick once dropped below 900mb

Agreed. Pressure is almost always lower with recon than satellite.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at it, I would not be surprised if unconstrained this goes to T7.5.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT's increasing

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 15:56:59 N Lon : 111:20:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 940.8mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.7 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +16.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.9 degrees

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:57:05 N Lon : 111:26:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 938.6mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.7 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.9 degrees

[supercane4867]

18z best track and dvorak bulletin should come out within two hours

[RL3AO]

Thats what a cat 5 looks like on a BD curve.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming, but with the large area of whites, that shouldn't stop a 7.0

[HURAKAN]

real beauty!

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 15:57:27 N Lon : 111:32:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.9 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +17.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.8 degrees