ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

appears there is a small ULL over Northern Bahama's moving west with flow.

[wxman57]

appears there is a small ULL over Northern Bahama's moving west with flow.

Yes, it is. NE winds aloft west of the upper low are resulting in shear over the disturbance. The west side of an upper-level low is not a favorable region for TC development.

[N2FSU]

Looks like it will enter the Gulf pretty close to where the BAM models predicted. Other models have it quite a bit further south.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro moved it offshore around 26.5N, not far from reality.

[stormhunter7]

appears there is a small ULL over Northern Bahama's moving west with flow.

Yes, it is. NE winds aloft west of the upper low are resulting in shear over the disturbance. The west side of an upper-level low is not a favorable region for TC development.

Yeah its helping with that explosion of storms off east Florida now. might help reduce the wind shear some on the NE side of 92L?

[davidiowx]

12Z Euro moved it offshore around 26.5N, not far from reality.

Where did the 12z Euro put the storm at landfall? Or does it not even develop it into anything?

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro moved it offshore around 26.5N, not far from reality.

True that.

[Riptide]

Keep in mind, the Euro failed to properly develop Edouard and I would not take it 100% verbatim in regards to intensity.

[Sanibel]

nobody south of orlando was spared by its wrath

It calmed down right after I posted that. Probably a thunderstorm outflow. Weird mix of sun, blue sky, and disturbed storm clouds outside right now. Never got a drop of rain.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

This season has really taught me to not trust the models when it comes to intensity. They are best served it seems to show where the storm will go. So many variables (love that programming term by the way) to predict the intensity that they often over develop or under develop the system most of the time and by a lot.

[Hammy]

Keep in mind, the Euro failed to properly develop Edouard and I would not take it 100% verbatim in regards to intensity.

How accurate is the Euro with track?

[Riptide]

Keep in mind, the Euro failed to properly develop Edouard and I would not take it 100% verbatim in regards to intensity.

How accurate is the Euro with track?

Not sure in this situation, not having a properly developed 850mb vorticity can mess around with the track.

[stormlover2013]

Hard to trust model tracks with no true center

[Siker]

I feel like in this situation we do have a defined center, it's the LLC getting ready to exit over the Gulf. However, the intensity in this case seems like it will play a major role in track.

[tolakram]

30 frame live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

Looks best sped up.

[Hammy]

Doesn't look closed at the moment, presumably from having gone over land, but if the upper level environment improves even slightly, it should spin up pretty good and possibly become a weak storm, as it looks like it'll be over water for 4-5 days.

[rolltide]

I think the T-storms may increase near the center tonight. However I also think they will be blown off by the NE shear keeping them on the south side of the center.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

[Stormtrackerjoe]

The center of 92L is moving offshore of Punta Gorda into the Gulf now, interesting to see what will happen this evening as it moves over the juicy Gulf waters.

Hoping for some wave action on the Gulf Beaches with this one.......

[MGC]

Doubt that warm water in the GOM can overcome the dry air and shear in the short term. Gotta keep an eye on it considering some of the model output......MGC

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My take on this system: http://www.spreaker.com:80/episode/4958918

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.