ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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blp
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#581 Postby blp » Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:57 pm

Here you go:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#582 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:57 pm

StormingB81 wrote:
blp wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.


Wow that has my attention. so that intensity graphic was right borderline CAT3 in 132hrs.



Is it still bringing it up through Tampa?


The run ends with a strong tropical storm near Naples in 126 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#583 Postby blp » Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:58 pm

meriland23 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.



HWRF is always consistent. Either consistent and wrong or consistent and right.


I has gotten upgrades lately and gotten better so I don't know if that is still true. Did very well with Arthur.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#584 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:59 pm

12Z Euro, 48h

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#585 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:02 pm

12z HWRF +120

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#586 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:03 pm

Image

Looks to be crossing SFL into the GoM s a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#587 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:03 pm

that's 4 runs now... into the gulf now. :eek:

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#588 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:05 pm

A group of 12Z GFS Ensembles have shifted back west into the NW Bahamas:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#589 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:05 pm

:uarrow: Well, HWRF is sticking to its gun and holding firm on a South Florida landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#590 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:06 pm

12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
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#591 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:06 pm

But isn't the HWRF basically useless without a defined system? The consistency makes you take pause though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#592 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:07 pm

12Z Euro 72h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#593 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:07 pm

HWRF holding firm worrisome especially since the CMC back west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#594 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


UKMET stays west too, weakening rapidly at the end though?
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#595 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:09 pm

If a South FL landfall does occur.... Yes HUGE if.... This would be a tremendous coup for the HWRF. The HWRF has been very consistent with this scenario. I would also like to point out how quickly it intensifies 96L over the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#596 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:10 pm

think this will come to or affect Tallahassee where i am now living?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#597 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:10 pm

floyd long ways to go brother
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#598 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:11 pm

It seems as though the 12zEuro has shifted west some as well with a recurve farther west so the western models might have some marrett after all like the HWRF, GEM and the FIM models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#599 Postby CFLHurricane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:12 pm

hurrtracker79 wrote:How can anyone at this stage in the process (pro or amateur) say that this will recurve or hit land. We just do not know this far out. Our science cannot predict this with much accuracy 5-8 days out. Models are obviously having a very hard time with it. Lets just relax and watch how this unfolds. Many storms including IKE/IRENE were "supposed" to curve out to sea, but we know what the end results were. Track/intensity will not be known for a few more days folks.


But I wanna know right now!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#600 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


The 12z UKMET run ends in the Gulf.
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