ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico west of Fort Myers
Florida remains poorly organized. Upper-level winds appear
unfavorable for significant development as the system moves
generally westward during the next few days. Nevertheless, this
system will continue to be closely monitored, and an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Saturday, if necessary. Locally heavy rains associated with
the low will continue over portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Dean4Storms]

That thing is getting a major Wedgie!!

[Sanibel]

Beautiful purple band clouds at sunset. The story of this thing is the crystal clear blue sky to the east of dry air.

[jlauderdal]

Beautiful purple band clouds at sunset. The story of this thing is the crystal clear blue sky to the east of dry air.

we had that earlier today...rainbow over the atlanyic an hour ago

[wxman57]

I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.

[HouTXmetro]

I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.

If you are getting on board the system definitely has my attention. I rarely see you bullish on development in these parts of the woods.

[Nimbus]

Sometime this week they will probably put this out to the media.
Before a trough can arrive it has to move away from that ULL that is providing shear.
Weekends are good for last minute prep work generator gas etc.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like convection is waning at the moment. Energy shifted down to Cuba.

[wxman57]

I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.

If you are getting on board the system definitely has my attention. I rarely see you bullish on development in these parts of the woods.

Now just because I think it has a good chance of being classified doesn't mean the impacts offshore will be much different than if it passes across the Gulf as a disturbance. It would have been classified as a TD 24-36 hours ago if some of those squalls were to have developed closer to the LLC which it clearly has.

[baytownwx]

Looks like convection is waning at the moment. Energy shifted down to Cuba.

To be expected this time of evening, let's see what DMAX does

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2014091300, , BEST, 0, 264N, 824W, 25, 1011, LO

[MGC]

So 57, where do you think 92L will eventually cross the coast again?......MGC

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is this invest over open water now?

[Nimbus]

Is this invest over open water now?

The 92L 94L combo?

Rotations can be seen on the last few visible's at sunset for both over water

[HouTXmetro]

That's a strong ULL... I just don't see how 92L can get organized with ULL on it's tail.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is this invest over open water now?

The 92L 94L combo?

Rotations can be seen on the last few visible's at sunset for both over water

What?

[underthwx]

I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.

That being said...what effects...if any...would 92l have in store for our region Wxman57?...I highly regard and respect your expertise. .thankyou...

[Sanibel]

Blustery here now. South wind off the Gulf feeding into the center.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is this thing finally dieing? Or is it just preparing to ramp back up? Looks like either something east of Florida or a part of this low that is not dieing off. If this thing got its act together it would be a BIG storm.

[tropicwatch]

Convection is starting to build again to the west and south.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26.5&lon=-81.5&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15