ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#581 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:34 pm

Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico west of Fort Myers
Florida remains poorly organized. Upper-level winds appear
unfavorable for significant development as the system moves
generally westward during the next few days. Nevertheless, this
system will continue to be closely monitored, and an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Saturday, if necessary. Locally heavy rains associated with
the low will continue over portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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#582 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:38 pm

That thing is getting a major Wedgie!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#583 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:50 pm

Beautiful purple band clouds at sunset. The story of this thing is the crystal clear blue sky to the east of dry air.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#584 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:00 pm

Sanibel wrote:Beautiful purple band clouds at sunset. The story of this thing is the crystal clear blue sky to the east of dry air.

we had that earlier today...rainbow over the atlanyic an hour ago
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#585 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:12 pm

I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#586 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.


If you are getting on board the system definitely has my attention. I rarely see you bullish on development in these parts of the woods.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#587 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:25 pm

Sometime this week they will probably put this out to the media.
Before a trough can arrive it has to move away from that ULL that is providing shear.
Weekends are good for last minute prep work generator gas etc.
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#588 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:38 pm

Looks like convection is waning at the moment. Energy shifted down to Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#589 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:52 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.


If you are getting on board the system definitely has my attention. I rarely see you bullish on development in these parts of the woods.


Now just because I think it has a good chance of being classified doesn't mean the impacts offshore will be much different than if it passes across the Gulf as a disturbance. It would have been classified as a TD 24-36 hours ago if some of those squalls were to have developed closer to the LLC which it clearly has.
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Re:

#590 Postby baytownwx » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:55 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Looks like convection is waning at the moment. Energy shifted down to Cuba.

To be expected this time of evening, let's see what DMAX does
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#591 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:58 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2014091300, , BEST, 0, 264N, 824W, 25, 1011, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#592 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:03 pm

So 57, where do you think 92L will eventually cross the coast again?......MGC
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#593 Postby TARHEELPROGRAMMER » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:05 pm

Is this invest over open water now?
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Re:

#594 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:28 pm

TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:Is this invest over open water now?


The 92L 94L combo?

Rotations can be seen on the last few visible's at sunset for both over water
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#595 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:30 pm

That's a strong ULL... I just don't see how 92L can get organized with ULL on it's tail.
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Re: Re:

#596 Postby TARHEELPROGRAMMER » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:33 pm

Nimbus wrote:
TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:Is this invest over open water now?


The 92L 94L combo?

Rotations can be seen on the last few visible's at sunset for both over water



What?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#597 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:I've been watching 92L for most of today. It appears that the LLC is better-defined than 24 hours ago. In addition, squalls have developed NORTH of the center for the first time, a sign that shear may at least be temporarily decreasing. Models still indicate converging air aloft, which would result in dry, sinking air in its path. But if the shear and upper-level convergence drop off for a few hours we could have a TD/TS out there. I'd estimate that the chances it will be classified as a TD are greater than 50%, maybe 60%. And if it IS a TD and recon flies into any squall I have little doubt the plane would be able to find a small area of 34kt winds and call it a TS. Now it doesn't look like the atmosphere would be favorable for continued strengthening, but it could become a TD or weak TS.

That being said...what effects...if any...would 92l have in store for our region Wxman57?...I highly regard and respect your expertise. .thankyou...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#598 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:41 pm

Blustery here now. South wind off the Gulf feeding into the center.
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#599 Postby TARHEELPROGRAMMER » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:43 pm

Is this thing finally dieing? Or is it just preparing to ramp back up? Looks like either something east of Florida or a part of this low that is not dieing off. If this thing got its act together it would be a BIG storm.
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#600 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:48 pm

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