WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[ManilaTC]

This prognosis by NWS Guam makes sense of it all.

TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LOW PRESSURE AREA NOW IN-BETWEEN CHUUK AND
POHNPEI NEAR 8N155E. THE VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE COMPUTER MODELS APPARENTLY DON'T QUITE
REPRESENT THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD PROPERLY AND SO DO NOT
UNDERSTAND THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION FIELD...THUS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HAS YET TO SHOW ANY CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL BEING MEASURED AT 25 TO
30KT ACROSS THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM... ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD
REQUIRE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N TO AVOID
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL TRADE-WIND FLOW AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. FOR NOW...WE NEED TO FIRST SEE SOME REAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DECISIONS ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE MOVEMENT OF AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MARIANAS NEEDS TO BE MADE. AS
PREDICTED ABOVE...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR NOW IS TO EXPECT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES INTO OUR LONGITUDE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Only when this happens shall 93W develop:
-- Wind shear relaxes and
-- The shear line provides an outflow channel for 93W.

[euro6208]

This prognosis by NWS Guam makes sense of it all.

TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LOW PRESSURE AREA NOW IN-BETWEEN CHUUK AND
POHNPEI NEAR 8N155E. THE VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE COMPUTER MODELS APPARENTLY DON'T QUITE
REPRESENT THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD PROPERLY AND SO DO NOT
UNDERSTAND THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION FIELD...THUS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HAS YET TO SHOW ANY CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL BEING MEASURED AT 25 TO
30KT ACROSS THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM... ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD
REQUIRE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N TO AVOID
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL TRADE-WIND FLOW AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. FOR NOW...WE NEED TO FIRST SEE SOME REAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DECISIONS ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE MOVEMENT OF AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MARIANAS NEEDS TO BE MADE. AS
PREDICTED ABOVE...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR NOW IS TO EXPECT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES INTO OUR LONGITUDE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Only when this happens shall 93W develop:
-- Wind shear relaxes and
-- The shear line provides an outflow channel for 93W.

That's an old report from 19 hours ago. They will release a new one in a few hours.

It's looking way much better now with increasing outflow since that update.

[dexterlabio]

Lot of convection near the area, could be the result of an active MJO/Kelvin wave. As for the circulation, yeah there's an improvement but it has to be more than that to be a real potent cyclone, as what the models are showing.



I just want to see how this system will develop in the next few days and enhance the westerlies in the equatorial Pacific. The stronger it gets, the bigger its impact would be. There's a very interesting article I read from Jeff Masters' blog, saying that the same scenario happened in 1997 with STY Isa. It allowed stronger westerlies to kick in that caused significant warming of sea surface.

[stormkite]

Came across this picture on the net of the LPA around Chuck.
The Pro Met at westernpacificweather is leaning towards a TS.

[ManilaTC]

Now a minor Tropical Depression according to JMA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 151E WEST SLOWLY.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just relaying some graphics here, Now a Tropical Depression though..







Plus my latest video update, ignore the rant about the off topic conversation at the start.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIAv_itZqvg[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Came across this picture on the net of the LPA around Chuck.
The Pro Met at westernpacificweather is leaning towards a TS.

Thats me Stormkite I do think Faxai is very well possible though. Not that strong but its there. Likely heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I find that Guam Discussion interesting, they say that despite JTWC issuing a TCFA and JMA already having a TD and all the models are pulling for a TS. I mean thats pretty bold but allright. They are the pros for that area.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like Guam has changed up a little, just issued a special weather statement.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... w2l8uOSxfg

[RobWESTPACWX]

[euro6208]

Currently at the beach and waves have certainly picked up over the past few hours and it's quite windy!

[euro6208]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
530 PM CHST WED FEB 26 2014

GUZ001>005-PMZ151>154-270000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN ISLANDS-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
530 PM CHST WED FEB 26 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...


A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 9.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 149.4
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 490
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS ON FRIDAY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXACT PATH AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MARIANAS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MARIANAS BY FRIDAY AND SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND COMBINED SEAS OF
12 TO 15 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES ALONG WITH HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IF THE
DISTURBANCE TAKES MORE OF A DIRECT PATH TOWARDS THE MARIANAS AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER THE WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF
A WATCH OR WARNING ISSUED.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 260530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 150.2E TO 9.1N 144.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 149.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 
150.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. A 260304Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPED INTO THE 
LLCC. A 260019Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WIND BARBS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
270530Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
GUZ001>005-272000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
610 PM CHST WED FEB 26 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARIANAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 9N149E...ABOUT 440 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXACT PATH AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MARIANAS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MARIANAS BY FRIDAY AND SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ADDITIONAL FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE REQUIRED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THIS SITUATION DEVELOPS.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

Dvorak numbers:

PGTW 1.0
KNES 1.0

[RobWESTPACWX]

Euro, would you mind sharing photos over the coming days?

[stormkite]

Still looks to be suffering from vertical shear and subsidence on the southern half of the circulation.
Cant build any convention in southern half the upper level SE shear is to strong.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

High pressure ridge prevailing over Marianas Islands. Probably a west-moving lingering storm over the Pacific Ocean then to shift northwards but luckily sparing [directly Guam] although as I have had a mistake, they may still get flooding rains and strong winds.



My intensity guess: Tropical Storm- Minimal Category 1 [65-120 km/h]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF goes with a track east of Guam and moving slower. They forecast a strong tropical storm. NAVGEM also follows this scenario.

At least we're having a break here in the Philippines. =) I hope there will not be any drought here. It's so hot here!

[euro6208]

First Visible...

TXPQ29 KNES 262112
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 26/2032Z

C. 10.6N

D. 148.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ALONG TRAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH BAROCLININIC ZONE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND LOOSELY DEFINED WITH MULTIPLE
CENTERS POSSIBLE AS PER 1525Z GCOM AMSR2 IMAGE. MOST PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN QUADRANTS WITH 3
TENTHS BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

Euro, would you mind sharing photos over the coming days?

Sure...