ATL: INVEST 90L

[wxman57]

What happened to this thing going to Florida that's What everyone was saying a few days back

This feature was not forecast to track across FL, it was a second developing low that the GFS took NE.

[cycloneye]

No mention of plane so it didn't go.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near a stationary
low pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong
upper-level winds, some development of this system is possible over
the next day or two while the lows drifts generally northwestward
near eastern Mexico. This disturbance will continue to produce
extremely heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[SeGaBob]

Normally they would of said the mission was canceled in the outlook. Maybe the plane is late leaving the base?

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2014060518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 944W, 30, 1004, LO

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This low is nearing TD status.... IMO
It had a nice flow and convection is starting to wrap around the LLC.
BTW did the recon plane flew out to investigate?

Read more of my thoughts on 90L: http://goo.gl/XJm09r

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

This low is nearing TD status.... IMO
It had a nice flow and convection is starting to wrap around the LLC.
BTW did the recon plane flew out to investigate?

Read more of my thoughts on 90L: http://goo.gl/XJm09r

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have been checking all throughout the afternoon, but it appears that Recon apparently did not fly out today to investigate 90L, unless I missed something.

[Hammy]

Given the recon being cancelled, it seems unlikely that this will be upgraded today. It seems odd that, given the winds were upped to 30kts and with there being an apparently small but tight circulation that they decided not to go out today.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-animated.gif

90L is looking impressive this afternoon. Clear cyclonic turning, and voeticity is (going by the CIMSS charts)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Only thing preventing an upgrade is no organized cluster of storms over the center. Only a brief reprieve in upper-level winds would allow this thing to become a tropical cyclone. We'll see what happens between now and Saturday.

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't look too well organized to me. Might be a while till it is Tropical Depression worthy.

[USTropics]

If it can stay in the BOC until Sunday, models show lowering shear. Below is a closeup animated gif of 90L throughout the day:

http://i60.tinypic.com/xbn8f9.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

I've seen a couple TDs with less obvious rotation than 90L has right now. Now, I can't see a clear LLC, and a recent ASCAT pass didn't show one, but microwave images suggests that the structure is getting closer (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc14/A ... W.73pc.jpg)

Here's the RGB loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-animated.gif

I'd think that the NHC will bump up the percentage at the 8pm TWO, probably just to 40% though.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

If I had to guess I would say that the NHC will keep both percentages at 30%

I do agree that they should raise it though.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40% / 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A stationary low pressure system located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over
most of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas
of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite data
indicate winds to near gale force are likely occurring to the
northeast and east of the center, and some development of this
system is still possible over the next day or two while the low
drifts generally northwestward toward eastern Mexico. This
disturbance will continue to produce extremely heavy rains, along
with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Nimbus]

The low level clouds circulating around the LLC are easy to spot through the shear. The LLC hasn't moved much and there is a convection burst in the last few frames. Won't be too long till the shear lets up so maybe we will see 50% by tomorrow AM.

[ozonepete]

I've seen a couple TDs with less obvious rotation than 90L has right now. Now, I can't see a clear LLC, and a recent ASCAT pass didn't show one, but microwave images suggests that the structure is getting closer (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc14/A ... W.73pc.jpg)

Here's the RGB loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-animated.gif

I'd think that the NHC will bump up the percentage at the 8pm TWO, probably just to 40% though.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice call EJ. And happy 2014 season. Here we go...

[TJRE]

Slide Show
Trial Run




90L
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Links
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014060600, , BEST, 0, 191N, 944W, 30, 1004, LO

[Annie Oakley]

What a beautiful storm. OMG.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[blp]

Ascat pass: