EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

It looks to be organizing at a good pace this afternoon.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

90%/90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,
Mexico, has continued to increase and become better organized
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are
conducive for continued development, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight. The
low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
which will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

At this point, I'm forecasting a 60kt peak intensity. There is still some light to moderate northwesterly shear affecting the system as a result of a displaced anticyclone to its northwest, but anticyclonic flow aloft is beginning to form over 94E itself as well. With water temperatures near 30C and a decently moist (not overly moist like Boris had), I see no reason to believe the system won't steadily intensify for the next 4 days or so. There's even a chance we see a period of rapid intensification assuming it can develop an inner core quickly. After day 4, the environment becomes very dry and increased wind shear from the subtropical jet begins to impede on the center. The GFS suggests dissipation by 168 hours, though it may occur sooner than this.

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2014060918, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1018W, 30, 1006, LO

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TAFB came in at T2.5/35kt and SAB came in at T1.5/25kt. 30kt is a good comprise given a recent ASCAT pass that showed some 25-30kt barbs (many barbs where the strongest convection is occurring were rain contaminated).

SHIPS is forecasting a 71kt peak and LGEM is forecasting a 56kt peak now. 12z GFS was 55kt.

[cycloneye]

As we know,the new policy by NHC is to not make public a renumber of a invest but to wait until the time they release advisories to then know it has been upgraded.

[tolakram]

It's got one of those 'eye-like' features.

saved loop

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! It looks so much better this afternoon, almost like a tropical storm (in my amateur opinion). I do agree with the fact that I may have been too critical, but I always thought that the look which 94E had this morning meant that a system was succumbing to dry air. However, it looks really good right now, and I won't be surprised to see a tropical storm at 2 PM PDT. In fact, it's the most vigorous looking invest I've seen in quite a while.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, an eye like feature already?

[tolakram]

19:00Z


from: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[tolakram]

Wow, an eye like feature already?

Eye-like feature is usually nothing like an eye, just circular cloud organization that sometimes makes it appear there is an eye. I don't think convection fully wraps around the center yet.

[SouthDadeFish]

It is pretty silly that this is not a classified TC at this time, in my opinion.

[hurricanes1234]

It is pretty silly that this is not a classified TC at this time, in my opinion.

I am almost certain, if not totally certain, that they are waiting on advisory time and an upgrade will occur in just a little over an hour.

[Yellow Evan]

It is pretty silly that this is not a classified TC at this time, in my opinion.

It will likely be upgraded into a TD at 21z.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, an eye like feature already?

Reminds me of Kiko 13 as a TD, but that had a more true eye

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convective organization was there at 15z for an upgrade but I'm sure there were questions about how well-defined the center was; the ASCAT pass almost an hour later cleared that up. 21z is a perfect time to designate IMO, probably getting pushed back to 18z in post-season analysis.

[SouthDadeFish]

It looked to have been a TC to me ever since the sun came up. It even has banding features. Probably already a TS at this time... Oh well. I'm sure the NHC has their reasons.

[Yellow Evan]

Any chance this could go right to TS status?

[hurricanes1234]

Any chance this could go right to TS status?

Personally, I think could be between 35 and 40 knots based on that look.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Any chance this could go right to TS status?

It could, but I wouldn't bet on it. A blend of SAB and TAFB gives 30kt, inline with the ASCAT pass.

It definitely *looks* like one though.