EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

[meriland23]

12z GFS brings this somewhat close to Hawaii ... in two weeks

Wow..what is that craziness by mexico?

[Yellow Evan]

http://i58.tinypic.com/2nst4yw.png

12z GFS brings this somewhat close to Hawaii ... in two weeks

Wow..what is that craziness by mexico?

Hurricane Marie (Nortbet?)

[CrazyC83]

The EPAC has gone insane...is this going to be their 2005? Already at K on August 13?

[Kingarabian]

We'll see how close this gets to Hawaii.

Right now just enjoy the show while it's a fish.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 40kts.

EP, 11, 2014081318, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1120W, 40, 1004, TS

[Kingarabian]

If anything, ill think it'll force it north. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a
possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone
and a potential break in the ridge along 130W. While the former
feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more
toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more
poleward track.

Supposed to be a break in the ridge as well, you're right. But the current track has it going southwest somewhat late in the forecast period because of 90E. Maybe it'll even out?

[Yellow Evan]

Right now just enjoy the show while it's a fish.

This. It's still ~two weeks from affecting Hawaii

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

If anything, ill think it'll force it north. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a
possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone
and a potential break in the ridge along 130W. While the former
feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more
toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more
poleward track.

Supposed to be a break in the ridge as well, you're right. But the current track has it going southwest somewhat late in the forecast period because of 90E. Maybe it'll even out?

Latest GFS runs show less of a break in the ridge though.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF calling for an 80 knt hurricane 10 min, which is around a mid-Cat 2 1 min.

[Kingarabian]

NHC not releasing the discussion 15 minutes early?! How dare they!!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 112.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

Karina is experiencing some issues with dry air entrainment and
modest north to northeasterly wind shear since the previous
advisory, which has resulted in some erosion of the large outer
convective band on the west side along with the central deep
convection. However, two recent scatterometer overpasses indicate
that Karina's circulation is well developed and compact, and that
the radius of maximum winds has decreased to around 10-15 nmi. The
initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on surface wind data of 40
kt from a 1649 UTC ASCAT-B overpass and 41 kt from a 1736 UTC
ASCAT-A overpass, and assuming that the scatterometers are
under-sampling the very small inner-core wind field.

Karina continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Karina is expected to maintain a general westward motion for the
next 5 days as the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of
a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The model guidance is tightly packed
through 72 hours, with the models diverging significantly after
that. However, the model spread has decreased on this cycle now that
the new 1200 UTC ECMWF model run has shifted farther to the north,
closer to the other global models and the previous NHC forecast
track. The new forecast is just an update of the previous advisory
track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.

Convection has developed during the past few hours within the dry
slot in the eastern semicircle, and a small burst of convection has
also developed very near the well-defined low-level circulation
center. All of this would suggest that the aforementioned dry air
issues will likely be short-lived. Over the next 3 days, the
vertical shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt while the
cyclone remains over SSTs of 28C-29C and within a fairly moist
mid-level environment. Only the proximity to cooler and more stable
air just west and northwest of the cyclone precludes a near-term
forecast of rapid intensification. However, the trend over the next
72 hours calls for at least steady intensification, with Karina
reaching hurricane strength by 36 hours. After that, the cyclone
will be moving over cooler SSTS and into a more stable air mass,
which should induce gradual weakening. However, the low vertical
wind shear environment is expected to result in slower weakening
than normally would occur over such marginal SSTs on Days 4 and 5.
The NHC official intensity forecast remains higher than the ICON
intensity consensus model, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and
GFDL models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.3N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.6N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 18.2N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 18.4N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Nice CDO.

[Equilibrium]

Off topic but interesting maybe king knows the answer is it usual for the whales in the area to stick to the leeward side of the island. I was wondering if its just by natural instinct they are able to sense up coming hostile weather events.?

http://whales.smartmine.com/

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 2014081400, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1135W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 170, 15, 55, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

Analyses from the University of Wisconsin indicate that about 15 kt
of east-northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but recent
microwave images suggest that Karina is succeeding in maintaining a
tight inner core. Maximum winds are held at 45 kt on this advisory
based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB and
T2.8/41 kt from the ADT. Even though vertical shear is expected to
only gradually diminish during the next day or two, its easterly to
east-northeasterly direction should still allow strengthening during
that time. In fact, the SHIPS rapid intensification index is
showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 25-kt increase in winds during the next
24 hours. Since environmental conditions appear favorable for
continued strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast is near the
upper end of the guidance, closely following the SHIPS and FSU
Superensemble models during the first 3 days. Only gradual
weakening is indicated on days 4 and 5, mainly due to less favorable
thermodynamic conditions.

Karina continues moving westward, or 275/13 kt, to the south of the
subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to continuing exerting
its influence for the next several days, and the track guidance is
tightly clustered on a westward trajectory through 48 hours. The
spread in the guidance beyond 48 hours appears to be the result of
how Karina interacts with two adjacent disturbances. The GFS shows
Karina interacting with a strengthening cyclone to its west, with
the resulting flow keeping it farther north and on the northern side
of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF, on the other hand, shows more
interaction between Karina and a possible cyclone to its east, which
forces Karina southwestward and on the southern side of the guidance
envelope. Due to the high uncertainty in how the pattern will
evolve by day 5, the official forecast maintains Karina on a general
westward, but decelerating, motion toward the end of the forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.4N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

A little surprised this is still 45 knts.

[Equilibrium]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... &RES=0



The big guns not modelling anything significant or a mayor threat to Hawaii atm. Maybe the recent upwelling has taken quite a lot of heat out of the SST..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=nepa&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0



The big guns not modelling anything significant or a mayor threat to Hawaii atm. Maybe the recent upwelling has taken quite a lot of heat out of the SST..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, it's two weeks out from nearing Hawaii. Also There's a lot of spread in the guidance after days 2-3. And Hawaii impacts are rare.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Deep convection associated with Karina has been expanding during
the last several hours, and microwave images suggest that the
storm is maintaining a tight inner core. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, but
recent ADT values from UW-CIMSS are a little higher. The initial
wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt based on the latest trends.

East-northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt is currently affecting
Karina, which is restricting the outflow on the east side of the
circulation. Although the shear is not expected to change much
during the next 24 to 36 hours, it should lessen beyond that time
period. The official intensity forecast continues to call for
steady strengthening during the next few days while Karina remains
over warm water and in a relatively moist air mass. Gradual
weakening is predicted in 4 to 5 days when the system moves
over more marginal sea surface temperatures. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and remains at the upper end of the
model guidance.

Karina is moving westward at about 12 kt on the southwest side of a
deep layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern
United States. This ridge is expected to build westward over the
Pacific Ocean, which should keep the storm moving westward at about
the same forward speed for the next few days. After that time, the
track forecast is complicated by the potential interaction with
other low pressure areas moving out of the Intertropical Convergence
Zone. The GFS shows a more northerly track of Karina due its
interaction with a disturbance to the west of the storm, while the
ECMWF shows a more southerly track due to its interaction with the
developing system to the east of Karina. The NHC track forecast is
between these scenarios, close to the model consensus, and is just a
tad to the north of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.6N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 18.2N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi