CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane ISELLE Advisory Number 25
Issued at 500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 17.0N 144.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 85 MPH...140 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC late for the third adv in a row.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC still has big island of Hawaii landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC still has big island of Hawaii landfall.

Well, it is moving WNW. But I still won't be shocked if this basses south (barley) of South Point. Idk, I'm just skeptical it'll make landfall now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA33 PHFO 061435
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

...HURRICANE ISELLE WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 144.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...
AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN KAUAI COUNTY AND THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
ADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC FOR YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE
OUTER WINDS OF ISELLE MAY REACH THE EASTERNMOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII ON THURSDAY. THESE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD TO
MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING ALONG SOME
COASTLINES STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Not bad for a weakening 75 knt system

[Kingarabian]

[img][/img]

Not bad for a weakening 75 knt system

I know right. It looks so bad on satellite, yet looks normal on microwave.

[Yellow Evan]

[img][/img]

Not bad for a weakening 75 knt system

I know right. It looks so bad on satellite, yet looks normal on microwave.

Hence why I think Recon will find a high end Cat 1.

[cycloneye]

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE ISELLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 07/1730, 2330Z A. 08/0530, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0609C ISELLE B. AFXXX 0709C ISELLE
C. 07/1545Z C. 08/0415Z
D. 18.9N 152.0W D. 19.4N 154.6W
E. 07/1715Z TO 07/2330Z E. 08/0515Z TO 08/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. ANOTHER 6-HRLY FIX MISSION ON ISELLE.

[Kingarabian]

Hence why I think Recon will find a high end Cat 1.

It has to turn NW today if it wants to make landfall, right?

[Kingarabian]

Discussion out yet?

[Yellow Evan]

Hence why I think Recon will find a high end Cat 1.

It has to turn NW today if it wants to make landfall, right?

Not quite. Has to gain 2 degrees in latitude while moving a little over 11 degrees W.

[Yellow Evan]

Discussion out yet?

Of course not

Won't shock me if there is none at all.

[Kingarabian]

Hence why I think Recon will find a high end Cat 1.

It has to turn NW today if it wants to make landfall, right?

Not quite. Has to gain 2 degrees in latitude while moving a little over 11 degrees W.

So NNW?

[Kingarabian]

Discussion out yet?

Of course not

Won't shock me if there is none at all.

That would be a new low.

[Yellow Evan]

It has to turn NW today if it wants to make landfall, right?

Not quite. Has to gain 2 degrees in latitude while moving a little over 11 degrees W.

So NNW?

WNW

[Kingarabian]

WNW

Ahh okay. Yeah right now it seems like a straight west.

[Yellow Evan]

WNW

Ahh okay. Yeah right now it seems like a straight west.

Officially it is moving WNW.

[Yellow Evan]

Only was 42 mins late

WTPA43 PHFO 061516
TCDCP3
HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW ISELLE IS ENCOUNTERING
HOSTILE CONDITIONS. THERE IS NOW ABUNDANT DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED
INTO THE ISELLE. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH THE ADVERSE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERED TUESDAY HAVE RESULTED IN RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE ONCE POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS NOW FROM
THE NORTH AT LESS THAN 10 KT BASED ON THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM
SAB...JTWC AND HFO. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 75 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT
MOTION IS 285/13 KT...WHICH REFLECTS THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE SPREAD OF THE DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
GREATER NOW COMPARED WITH 6 HOURS AGO. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR
ISELLE FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH
DAY 4. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOTION STARTING DURING THE
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW.
NOTE THAT THE TRACK ON DAY 5 HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...SINCE
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE WINDS FROM ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OCCURRED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE HURRICANE WEAKENED...AND A RIDGE
ALOFT NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING WESTWARD. THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
TRENDS DEPICTED BY THE SHIPS/LGEM/IVCN GUIDANCE. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH A SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING
OR STEADY STATE THEREAFTER.
IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ISELLE. WITH AN AVERAGE
48 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON
TO SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER...AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISELLE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN
EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE EASTERNMOST ISLANDS POSSIBLE STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.0N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 17.5N 147.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 18.2N 150.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.9N 153.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.6N 156.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.6N 161.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 21.4N 165.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 22.7N 170.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON