ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[stormlover2013]

can you post a image?

[tolakram]

12Z Euro 96h, still recurving

[meriland23]

Just pointing out..HWRFs tracks towards the end is eerily similar to Andrew

[gatorcane]

It seems as though the 12zEuro has shifted west some as well with a recurve farther west so the western models might have some marrett after all like the HWRF, GEM and the FIM models

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ECMWF has it hitting the weakness in 96 hours heading North east of the Bahamas...

[Hurricaneman]

It seems as though the 12zEuro has shifted west some as well with a recurve farther west so the western models might have some marrett after all like the HWRF, GEM and the FIM models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ECMWF has it hitting the weakness in 96 hours heading North east of the Bahamas...

I only saw through 72hrs when I posted that so oops probably should have waited a bit but as for the Euro it has the trough stronger than the other models so this would make sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RevDodd]

I'd reckon that rapid weakening per the UK Met was land interaction?

[Hurricaneman]

I'd reckon that rapid weakening per the UK Met was land interaction?

Goes right over Cuba which is why it does that

[OuterBanker]

With the two ghosts in the Gulf and Arthur as a slight reflection going out to sea 6 days prior to land fall we can all relax on the accuracy of the GFS this year.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro 120h

[Weatherboy1]

That is some serious divergence in the 72-120 hour timeframe, both in terms of strength and ultimate path. Which just goes to show you how hard it is to model a system that hasn't even technically formed yet. Gotta fall back on my standard response: We'll know more in 36-48 hours!

[gatorcane]

With the two ghosts in the Gulf and Arthur as a slight reflection going out to sea 6 days prior to land fall we can all relax on the accuracy of the GFS this year.

Yeah the GFS took a couple of upgrades this year too. Good test for the models UKMET/GEM/HWRF to the west toward Florida/Bahamas/Cuba and GFS/Euro/NAVGEM/FIM to the east with a recurve....the better models are forecasting a recurve though and keeping this system east of Florida.

[Riptide]

Wow, Euro...how is it going to recurve completely with the blocking high?

[northjaxpro]

It seems as though the 12zEuro has shifted west some as well with a recurve farther west so the western models might have some marrett after all like the HWRF, GEM and the FIM models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ECMWF has it hitting the weakness in 96 hours heading North east of the Bahamas...

I only saw through 72hrs when I posted that so oops probably should have waited a bit but as for the Euro it has the trough stronger than the other models so this would make sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Throughout this event, The EURO has always been the strongest with the trough, even depicting a cut- off Low off the NC coast at one point in the its runs this week.

[Hurricaneman]

one more note on the 12zGFS is that its ever so close to not recurving that any slight deviation in the ridge would send this to Florida or even the gulf so that area is most certainly not out of the woods as of yet as some have been suggesting but it does seem we now have a center to work off of on for the models now so we might have a better idea from here on

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[meriland23]

EURO smidge west in comparison to 12z yesterday
12z today


12z yesterday

[OuterBanker]

I'm usually with the Euro (sure nailed Arthur from the start). But, this time I think they are too fast. One good thing though, looks like most models make this a fish or a Fla landfall not a coast hugger. We should be out of the scenario.

[jlauderdal]

With the two ghosts in the Gulf and Arthur as a slight reflection going out to sea 6 days prior to land fall we can all relax on the accuracy of the GFS this year.

Yeah the GFS took a couple of upgrades this year too. Good test for the models UKMET/GEM/HWRF to the west toward Florida/Bahamas/Cuba and GFS/Euro/NAVGEM/FIM to the east with a recurve....the better models are forecasting a recurve though and keeping this system east of Florida.

the hwrf has been so lousy throughout the years its hard to buy into any solution associated with it but one of these days if nothing else it will get lucky; be interesting to see which camp wins this one

[tolakram]

Uh oh

12Z Euro 144h heading NW of previous position



form comparison

[Steve]

As for UKMET, would someone who knows better please chime in?

I know sometimes it wins over everything and anticipates things other models almost don't even fathom (for example Ivan part 2), but sometimes it's completely random. The SFWMD spaghetti model plots incorporating the 00Z this morning had a bad initialization as far as I can tell. The current one starts off around 73West when 96L isn't even to 60 yet I don't think. Could that be the driver for the continued more southern and western tracks that it's anticipating? Maybe I'm missing something here? I realize 00UTC would be 7PM central, but are these UKMET runs valid for future time initialization?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like a trough (in the central US moving eastward) pushes it out to sea before it makes it to the East Coast in this run.