CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

"24H 07/1200Z 18.2N 150.4W 60 KT 70 MPH"

Does that bring it offshore to the south?

[Kingarabian]

If recon finds hurricane winds before the next advisory, are they allowed to drop the winds lower based on appearance?

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS is further north and brings it very close to the Big Island.

[Yellow Evan]

"24H 07/1200Z 18.2N 150.4W 60 KT 70 MPH"

Does that bring it offshore to the south?

By around .7 of a degree, yes.

Still 5 degrees W though.

[Yellow Evan]

[Alyono]

zero shear area has kicked in...

[galaxy401]

Looks very unique looking. I'm interested in what recon will find.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks very unique looking. I'm interested in what recon will find.

I've never seen a storm in the EPAC look quite like it.

[Yellow Evan]

[supercane4867]

This is how a hurricane sustain itself with very dry air all over the place but little wind shear

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, it actually looks a little better now.

[mrbagyo]

2014AUG06 133000 3.6 994.4 57.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -11.26 -29.58 CRVBND N/A 10.6 17.17 143.95 FCST GOES15 22.6
2014AUG06 140000 3.6 994.4 57.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -9.16 -30.95 CRVBND N/A 10.6 17.20 144.10 FCST GOES15 22.7
2014AUG06 143000 3.5 995.7 55.0 2.9 2.8 2.3 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -5.26 -30.68 CRVBND N/A 10.6 17.24 144.24 FCST GOES15 22.8
2014AUG06 150000 3.5 995.8 55.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.34 -36.77 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.00 144.50 FCST GOES15 22.7
2014AUG06 153000 3.4 997.1 53.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.24 -36.47 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.02 144.62 FCST GOES15 22.8
2014AUG06 160000 3.2 999.5 49.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.04 -36.69 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.04 144.75 FCST GOES15 22.9
2014AUG06 163000 3.2 999.5 49.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.34 -37.64 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.07 144.88 FCST GOES15 23.0
2014AUG06 170000 3.1 1000.7 47.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.34 -40.90 CRVBND N/A 10.1 16.90 144.90 FCST GOES15 22.8



look at how the eye's temperature changed in a very short period..

[Frank2]

Looks a little stronger than 6 hours ago but per the colorized WV loop dry air is still being drawn into the system (not at the center yet, though)...

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the E quadrant of TS and hurricane winds may have to be expanded.

[Yellow Evan]

2014AUG06 133000 3.6 994.4 57.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -11.26 -29.58 CRVBND N/A 10.6 17.17 143.95 FCST GOES15 22.6
2014AUG06 140000 3.6 994.4 57.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -9.16 -30.95 CRVBND N/A 10.6 17.20 144.10 FCST GOES15 22.7
2014AUG06 143000 3.5 995.7 55.0 2.9 2.8 2.3 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -5.26 -30.68 CRVBND N/A 10.6 17.24 144.24 FCST GOES15 22.8
2014AUG06 150000 3.5 995.8 55.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.34 -36.77 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.00 144.50 FCST GOES15 22.7
2014AUG06 153000 3.4 997.1 53.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.24 -36.47 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.02 144.62 FCST GOES15 22.8
2014AUG06 160000 3.2 999.5 49.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.04 -36.69 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.04 144.75 FCST GOES15 22.9
2014AUG06 163000 3.2 999.5 49.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.34 -37.64 CRVBND N/A 10.1 17.07 144.88 FCST GOES15 23.0
2014AUG06 170000 3.1 1000.7 47.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.34 -40.90 CRVBND N/A 10.1 16.90 144.90 FCST GOES15 22.8



look at how the eye's temperature changed in a very short period..

Should help Dvorak a bit.

[supercane4867]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 980.2 mb (~ 28.95 inHg)

67kt SFMR wind in NW eyewall

[Alyono]

chances increasing that this will miss Hawaii to the south. Moving due west now, showing no signs of a continued WNW motion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

WTPA43 PHFO 061710
TCDCP3

HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
700 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

THE NEED FOR COMPLETION OF PREPARATION IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAWAII COUNTY AT THIS
TIME. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAWAII COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW ISELLE HAS A WELL
DEFINED EYE...SINCE THE WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK. EVEN
THOUGH DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO ISELLE...ENHANCED
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE EYEWALL.

A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE
SYSTEM AND WILL BE SENDING ADDITIONAL DATA FROM THE HURRICANE. THE
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE SENT AT 1100 AM HST...2100
UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1700Z 16.9N 144.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 17.5N 147.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 18.2N 150.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.9N 153.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.6N 156.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.6N 161.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 21.4N 165.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 22.7N 170.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Closer: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-146&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Yellow Evan]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

Closer: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-146&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

http://imageshack.com/a/img673/811/RsHahy.jpg

Looks really good now with convection on the rise.