ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[meriland23]

12z 168 hrs

[tolakram]

12Z Euro, 168h back out to sea

[tolakram]

Well, regardless, run to run the major globals have stopped shifting right and are sniffing out west again. The GFS stalls and goes, the Euro zig zags and goes. One wonders what the next few runs will show.

[stormlover2013]

when was the last time the Euro and Gfs has been wrong? Has any other model been accurate in the last couple of years?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I like NHC 5-day updated graphic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[bamajammer4eva]

As for UKMET, would someone who knows better please chime in?

I know sometimes it wins over everything and anticipates things other models almost don't even fathom (for example Ivan part 2), but sometimes it's completely random. The SFWMD spaghetti model plots incorporating the 00Z this morning had a bad initialization as far as I can tell. The current one starts off around 73West when 96L isn't even to 60 yet I don't think. Could that be the driver for the continued more southern and western tracks that it's anticipating? Maybe I'm missing something here? I realize 00UTC would be 7PM central, but are these UKMET runs valid for future time initialization?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Looks to me like it doesn't develop it until it gets past Hispaniola which if you saw the text of the ukmet tc report it would probably say system forms in xx hours. The time stamp for ukmet on that site says 12z.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, regardless, run to run the major globals have stopped shifting right and are sniffing out west again. The GFS stalls and goes, the Euro zig zags and goes. One wonders what the next few runs will show.

[meriland23]

I like NHC 5-day updated graphic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Looks like a golf club

[Tammster]

Not sure if this is the right place for this link (since it's general information) but I certainly found it interesting, informative & timely:

Which Hurricane Model Should You Trust
by Dr. Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2769

[Blown Away]

Ukmet - GOM
BAMS - SFL
BAMD - Heading for Europe
Nogaps - Pointing towards NYC

Wow, talk about confusion...

[meriland23]

If this is going to pass north of Hisp. ( like it looks so far) it is definitely underestimated in intensity

[tolakram]

Asked for soundings in the discussion thread, but since this is from the GFS I'll post it here.

500MB relative humidity should improve over time.

[Steve]

Looks to me like it doesn't develop it until it gets past Hispaniola which if you saw the text of the ukmet tc report it would probably say system forms in xx hours. The time stamp for ukmet on that site says 12z.

Right. They updated after the newer run. But if you look at the text output for 12Z, it starts at 73.x. Wait, I see what it is. It looks like the outputs they're providing do start as you said, after formation. For instance:

12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY




So it beigns with that subset of data from where the model forecasts formation then plots from there. (It's gotta be wrong IMHO.) I miss the days when the entire runs were still public as it did have value as a model, and often in conjunction with other models (GFS, GFDL, ECMWF, etc.) would be a more likely bet.

[blp]

The 12z Ukmet.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Not sure if this is the right place for this link (since it's general information) but I certainly found it interesting, informative & timely:

Which Hurricane Model Should You Trust
by Dr. Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2769

Interesting that the HWRF was the top performing model last year at 5 days, even better then the NHC official forecast. Look what the latest HWRF has at 5 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[blp]

Ukmet still consistently on the West side even though it is not a strong system.

[Steve]

Regarding the HWRF, I'm surprised it did that well last year, since it had a colorful early history. But it really puts up a block behind the "backdoor front" and connects the ridge with the CONUS ridge. That's pretty typical of August, but this season, who knows?

[blp]

Nice new article by Dr. Masters on the model performance on intensity. I found these passage interesting:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2769&page=2#commenttop

As usual, in 2013 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was better than any individual computer models at most forecast time periods, although NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models were the top performers, when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms.

The GFS model has done a decent job at making intensity forecasts over the past three years, but the European model has made poor intensity forecasts. In 2013 and for the period 2011 - 2013, the HWRF model was the best-performing intensity model for forecasts of 48 hours or less. The LGEM statistical model was the best one at longer-term intensity forecasts of 3 - 5 days.

Even the FIM 9 got some respect

Notably, the 15-km resolution global FIM9 model was competitive with the top-tier GFS, European, GFDL, and HWRF dynamical models for track.

[cycloneye]

blp,maybe because the UKMET upgrade was made a few weeks ago and he may wait to see how it performs in 2014.

[OuterBanker]

Anyone notice that all the models are now north of the islands.