EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[SeGaBob]

To remind members that may not know from what wave the genesis began,it was from ex 94L.

That's interesting to know...

[Kingarabian]

Gotta love her long mermaid tail to the southwest and west.

It's like a feeder tube from the ITCZ.

[Cunxi Huang]

[Kingarabian]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Marie is another example of the NHC being far too conservative in their first advisory this year. They were off by 60kt.

They did catch up quickly, however.

[cycloneye]

The models did a stellar job since very early especially GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, this is a big win for both SHIPS and GFS. EPAC making models look good.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 15:46:15 N Lon : 111:51:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 917.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 202km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees

Adj T up to 7.2, which is 145 knts.

[supercane4867]

Microwave imagery indicates a secondary eyewall is forming

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 914.5mb/143.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.2

[Hurricane_Luis]

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, so if they go with 914 mbar, 4th strongest EPAC TC on record.

[CrazyC83]

Given all the data, I would go with 145 kt at the advisory.

[WeatherGuesser]

Map at the top of these pages still says '4'.

[Yellow Evan]

Map at the top of these pages still says '4'.

NHC hasn't issued their advisory yet.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Map at the top of these pages still says '4'.

NHC has'nt issued the advisory yet.

But I would just say...THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME!!!

[SeGaBob]

Advisory confirms category 5.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Ahhh....And Breathe.

2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 24
Location: 16.0°N 112.2°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...SWELLS FROM MARIE EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY...

[supercane4867]

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid
area of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10
n mi wide eye. Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt
from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the
initial intensity. This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane
in the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010.

Unless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection
surrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not
likely. The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the
next 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from
persistence and not the environment itself. Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU
pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making
it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next
day or so. Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in
the short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a
major hurricane through 48 hours. After that time, the hurricane
will quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to
a tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical
by day 5. This scenario is not really different from the previous
forecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48
hours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Trochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short
term movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is
270/12 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and
insists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even
northwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours. That general
trajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning
north-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of
the subtropical ridge. As in the previous forecast, no significant
changes to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 112.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.9N 115.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 19.5N 117.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.7N 119.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 26.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 29.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh!!!!!! Category 5!!!