ATL: Ex NINE

[Blown Away]

Wxman, please explain what the NHC is giving 20% chance of developing?

[Dean4Storms]

No separation, no deep continuous convection and lots of dry air and shear just to the north. Don't see it!

[ozonepete]

No separation, no deep continuous convection and lots of dry air and shear just to the north. Don't see it!

Just remember, where the dry air and shear are means nothing. It's where they are going that matters and are they dissipating, strengthening or holding the same. Both the Euro and GFS have shear weakening and staying north of this area and no dry air in the area either. That makes for a very different forecast than your "don't see it" says.

[ozonepete]

Also, I think most are missing the forest for the trees. Wxman57 is right that the TD is basically gone and all he sees is a dying stationary front. And what is one of the most common ways to get a TC to brew up in this area in the late season? Low pressure forming along the tail end of a dead or dying front. Since both sides of the front are quite moist and there's still baroclinic vorticity associated with the front, a low could form at any point along it from the Nicaraguan coast all the way to south Cuba. So you just watch and see if pressures start dropping and where convection starts building. Might happen, might not. But climatology says watch this really carefully for the next few days. And btw, there's a considerable amount of convection popping along and north of the central Nicaraguan coast.

[wxman57]

The trailing ends of cold fronts are places to watch for TC formation. Remember a little storm in 2005 called Rita? That's how it formed. But the atmosphere was far less hostile in 2005 than it is now. A weak low could form but it's heading west and inland as a BIG cold front plows across the Gulf next week. Gulf threats are over for 2014 (never really began).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while the disturbance meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[ozonepete]

The trailing ends of cold fronts are places to watch for TC formation. Remember a little storm in 2005 called Rita? That's how it formed. But the atmosphere was far less hostile in 2005 than it is now. A weak low could form but it's heading west and inland as a BIG cold front plows across the Gulf next week. Gulf threats are over for 2014 (never really began).

Yup, I would have to agree wxman. If anything forms I can't see it getting past a TD or weak TS and anything that weak will be forced westward into the Yucatan and game over. And while one should never say never , I'm pretty sure as well that that's it for the northern Gulf for 2014.

[gatorcane]

The 850MB vorticity has really increased the past few hours and is looking less frontal:



Just 3 hours earlier, it was much weaker and elongated across the front. Here is the graphic:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NHC is still giving this a 10% chance of developing within 2 days and a 20% chance of developing within 5 days; call me bullish if you wish, but I'd put these chances closer to 30% and 40% right now. The tail-end of the cold front sprawled across the region is giving way to a new area of low pressure (as aforementioned). As the front progresses eastward, this new low should be left behind in an environment conducive for steady development as it moves slowly westward toward the Yucatan. I wouldn't be surprised to see a weak to moderate tropical storm again before all is said and done.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The trailing ends of cold fronts are places to watch for TC formation. Remember a little storm in 2005 called Rita? That's how it formed. But the atmosphere was far less hostile in 2005 than it is now. A weak low could form but it's heading west and inland as a BIG cold front plows across the Gulf next week. Gulf threats are over for 2014 (never really began).

But hopefully you remember that not everybody on this forum lives along the United States Gulf Coast, or in the USA in general.

[cycloneye]

Text of 00z Best Track:

At 0000 UTC, 26 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 17.5°N and 82.5°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 115 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

[gatorcane]

Has picked up it's speed slightly and is moving slightly more towards the E or just south of east. That would allow it to get farther from the shear and dry air that has penetrated into the extreme NW Caribbean and possibly miss Nicaragua/Honduras when it finally turns.

The vorticity is becoming more obvious looking at sat loops. Currently the invest is lacking convection so likely dealing with some dry air issues. If it can build some convection around the increasing vorticity, it would be a good sign.

There is an upper anticyclone very near this invest providing a very favorable upper-level environment.

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: Has picked up it's speed slightly and is moving slightly more towards the E or just south of east. That would allow it to get farther from the shear and dry air that has penetrated into the extreme NW Caribbean and possibly miss Nicaragua/Honduras when it finally turns.

The vorticity is becoming more obvious looking at sat loops. Currently the invest is lacking convection so likely dealing with some dry air issues. If it can build some convection around the increasing vorticity, it would be a good sign.

There is an upper anticyclone very near this invest providing a very favorable upper-level environment.

Hi Gatorcane:

From your neighbor in WPB, I just want to say you have been very professional and a wealth of information this season. I always look forward to your postings each season.

[dexterlabio]

I like the attitude of people here. It might be a weak surface low now but the potential of it being a cyclone, even though slim, is still being considered. Taking chances is not an option in the tropics...you have to look at each possibility and be ready. You guys are actually lucky. Every year in this part of the world (Philippines), the public only has its attention on a storm when it's already a Cat5..or has already dumped a month-worth of rain...and the result is obviously not good...

[SFLcane]

The trailing ends of cold fronts are places to watch for TC formation. Remember a little storm in 2005 called Rita? That's how it formed. But the atmosphere was far less hostile in 2005 than it is now. A weak low could form but it's heading west and inland as a BIG cold front plows across the Gulf next week. Gulf threats are over for 2014 (never really began).

9 years since a major hurricane has made landfall in America and Florida hasn’t seen "ANY" hurricane make landfall since Wilma.

[floridasun78]

look like dry air won storm drying quick and getting pull to se

[Blown Away]

[floridasun78]

i saw that were nhc have low of extd9 at all storm west over land

[cycloneye]

Some changes in the wording.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is producing limited thunderstorm activity over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea about midway between Jamaica and
Honduras. Redevelopment is not expected for the next day or two
while the disturbance interacts with a cold front. After that time,
some slow development could occur while the low drifts southward and
then westward near the coast of northern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Has picked up it's speed slightly and is moving slightly more towards the E or just south of east. That would allow it to get farther from the shear and dry air that has penetrated into the extreme NW Caribbean and possibly miss Nicaragua/Honduras when it finally turns.

The vorticity is becoming more obvious looking at sat loops. Currently the invest is lacking convection so likely dealing with some dry air issues. If it can build some convection around the increasing vorticity, it would be a good sign.

There is an upper anticyclone very near this invest providing a very favorable upper-level environment.

Hi Gatorcane:

From your neighbor in WPB, I just want to say you have been very professional and a wealth of information this season. I always look forward to your postings each season.

Thanks WPB, appreciate the kind words. One thing I have learned tracking the tropics for so many years is "never say never." Taking a look this morning, we are now seeing convection building right over the area of greatest low-level 850MB vorticity (bottom image below) which is a good sign. The invest is still interacting with a front though as you can see from the trail of clouds extending ENE from this invest in the image below (plus the low-level clouds streaming quickly south in the NW Caribbean as seen in the image), but if it can manage to stay offshore Honduras and Nicaragua, I think chances are increasing this may develop in the Gulf of Honduras in the next few days as the interaction with the cold front lessens.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.