ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

TheAustinMan · #641 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:51 am

Here's the third installment of the radar loops I've posted, this time showing the storm at time of designation and up to this morning. A large four hour gap exists where I wasn't able to update the frames (sleeping

) but you can see how the depression rearranged itself and strengthened, as well as organized.

#642 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:55 am

My guess they are going ahead with an uprade in the next few minutes to a TS.

Frank2 · #643 Postby **Frank2** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:55 am

Strengthened might be a bit strong - it has a very broad center with light showers around the center with the stronger convection well south, but now is close enough to the peninsula that it'll be pulling in drier air off the mainland...

#644 Postby **afswo** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:57 am

NDG wrote:My guess they are going ahead with an uprade in the next few minutes to a TS.

I agree. I have seen them upgrade worse looking systems in year's past.

#645 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:57 am

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

#646 Postby **kunosoura** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:58 am

NHC cyclones home page referring to TD1 as TS Arthur.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

Edit: NDG beat me to it.

Frank2 · #647 Postby **Frank2** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:58 am

True, perhaps that's the reason their website hasn't been updated yet, but am glad that they didn't start writing TS advisories yesterday - there's a time and place for everything...

ConvergenceZone · #648 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:59 am

Frank2 wrote:Strengthened might be a bit strong - it has a very broad center with light showers around the center with the stronger convection well south, but now is close enough to the peninsula that it'll be pulling in drier air off the mainland...

Well, otherwise it would be a mid strength tropical storm. What you mentioned is why it's not a real healthy tropical storm, but it will get there....Even the NHC expects a slow strengthening, but even a slow strengthening will allow it to still reach hurricane strength in about 2 and 1/2 days...

#649 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:59 am

Frank2 wrote:Strengthened might be a bit strong - it has a very broad center with light showers around the center with the stronger convection well south, but now is close enough to the peninsula that it'll be pulling in drier air off the mainland...

Not to insult you, but are you under medication or something

Come on Frank2, write something that makes sense.

Frank2 · #650 Postby **Frank2** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:00 am

Yep, it's Arthur as of 11 a.m. per the NHC site...

P.S. No meds just seeing what I'm seeing - even my old friend Max Mayfield last evening wasn't too impressed, but as others said with time it might work into a stronger system - we'll see...

#651 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:02 am

Frank2 wrote:Yep, it's Arthur as of 11 a.m. per the NHC site...

Check the advisories thread when you can see them as soon they come out.

galaxy401 · #652 Postby **galaxy401** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:05 am

Well least we got through the wait game for the first named storm. Welcome Arthur!

SeGaBob · #653 Postby **SeGaBob** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:05 am

It looks like I severely underestimated this last night... it looks pretty good right now.

#654 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:08 am

NHC now forecasts Arthur to have wind gusts close to 100 mph as it passes close to the Outer Banks, I hope they start evacuations and or preparations later today.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

eastcoastFL · #655 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:10 am

Its been breezy and dark all morning here in Stuart. Rigth now it just changed to windy and Heavy Down Pours... :sick:

viberama · #656 Postby **viberama** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:13 am

Ok I'll give my humble opinion ;-)

Up here in Daytona Beach, the air is fairly dry and Arthur is still pulling that dry air in. On top of that, all I have to do and go outside and look up at the CB getting sheared off to know the conditions are not perfect but damn he's a fighter.

Not a forecast, just an opinion of a weather junkie

eastcoastFL · #657 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:16 am

The NHC has been spot on with the direction of this storm and forecasting when its supposed to turn. Very good job. Explains why they didnt need to post watches for Palm Beach County yesterday.

#658 Postby **OuterBanker** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:18 am

I know it will change, but TPC has center over the Nags Head area Fri 8am. On second thought it had better change.

#659 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:20 am

Looking better and better, like the NHC mentioned on their discussion a few minutes ago, the high clouds are starting to expand to the north, indicative that the NW shear may have started to let up some already.

#660 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:21 am

Mark Sudduth and Jesse,are you preparing to chase Arthur in Hatteras /Outer Banks?

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