ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM-9 back to a South Florida landfall:

[gatorcane]

So to recap:

Recurve:

ECMWF
GFS
NAVGEM

West Towards Florida/Bahamas:

UKMET (furthest south)
HWRF
FIM-9
GEM

[Weatherboy1]

Good quick recap gatorcane. I would maybe put the GFS in the "middle," so to speak, because it basically stalls 96 out for a long period of time before eventually getting pulled to the N and E. Very interesting to see such a wide model divergence at this point.

[ronjon]

So gator, what's it gonna be? recurve or FL? coin flip? best two out of three, lol. i still think you have to favor recurve as king Euro and GFS are singing the same tune. Now, if the 18z GFS heads back west tonite then "houston, we got a problem" - except maybe subsitute Miami.

[gatorcane]

The 12z Ukmet.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Map of UKMET, 132 hours, entering the SE Gulf. It also is picking up on a system to the east of the Northern Leewards:

[Hurricane Andrew]

The 12z Ukmet.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Map of UKMET, 132 hours, entering the SE Gulf. It also is picking up on a system to the east of the Leewards:

With 96L headed right into the steamlands in the gulf. If this thing goes north of the islands, then IMO models may be slightly underestimating strength.

[Bocadude85]

If this system does pass north of the islands and does become stronger then forecast I wonder how the models would respond?

[Javlin]

The UKMet reminds me of Georges 1998 "track wise".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Georges

[N2Storms]

[quote="ronjon"]So gator, what's it gonna be? recurve or FL? coin flip? best two out of three, lol. i still think you have to favor recurve as king Euro and GFS are singing the same tune. Now, if the 18z GFS heads back west tonite then "houston, we got a problem" - except maybe subsitute Miami. [/quote]



I agree...it is awfully hard to go against both the GFS and Euro when they are on board together but I guess for now I'll just stay neutral like Switzerland and wait for and actual LLC to be ID'd and see what happens then. My gut is telling me that the re-curve scenario is most likely but for now I'm just going to watch the windshield wipers.

Oh, and hello everyone. This is my first post in a long time though I have been doing lots of lurking. I'm so glad that Wxman is back again. He's an invaluable asset to the board and I always look forward to and put lots of stock in to what he says. I wish MWatkins would drop by more often...really like him as well.

[jlauderdal]

So gator, what's it gonna be? recurve or FL? coin flip? best two out of three, lol. i still think you have to favor recurve as king Euro and GFS are singing the same tune. Now, if the 18z GFS heads back west tonite then "houston, we got a problem" - except maybe subsitute Miami.

tough to go against euro and gfs when they are in tandem

[HeeBGBz]

Pre-Cristobal, I dub thee Crystal Ball. You need one to figure him out.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z Euro ensembles are still over the place ranging from Texas to a recurve.

[ronjon]

Pre-Cristobal, I dub thee Crystal Ball. You need one to figure him out.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Euro ensembles are still over the place ranging from Texas to a recurve.

Split the middle I guess.

[N2FSU]

Any guesses on the 18Z GFS coming out in about an hour? Continued stall then fish, or trending back westward?

[Evil Jeremy]

Any guesses on the 18Z GFS coming out in about an hour? Continued stall then fish, or trending back westward?

"Yes"

[HURAKAN]

Any guesses on the 18Z GFS coming out in about an hour? Continued stall then fish, or trending back westward?

"Yes"

I would guess recurve but do we get "phone a friend" option? lol

[somethingfunny]

Any guesses on the 18Z GFS coming out in about an hour? Continued stall then fish, or trending back westward?

"Yes"

I would be recurve but do we get "phone a friend" option? lol

YOU are my "phone a friend" option!

[N2FSU]

Any guesses on the 18Z GFS coming out in about an hour? Continued stall then fish, or trending back westward?

"Yes"

Good one!

[Bocadude85]

Any guesses on the 18Z GFS coming out in about an hour? Continued stall then fish, or trending back westward?

I think the GFS will stick with a recurve. Perhaps a quicker recurve then the 12z showed