ATL: Ex NINE

[wxman57]

There is still no "low" in the area where the NHC is initializing the models. No circulation, and pressures are rising in the area. Northerly winds are located east of where the models were initialized. Plenty of dry air flowing into the western Caribbean behind the front. Development chances closer to 3-5% vs. 20%. Slim.

[cycloneye]

Text of 12z Best Track:

At 1200 UTC, 26 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 17.0°N and 81.6°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 100 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

[gatorcane]

There is still no "low" in the area where the NHC is initializing the models. No circulation, and pressures are rising in the area. Northerly winds are located east of where the models were initialized. Plenty of dry air flowing into the western Caribbean behind the front. Development chances closer to 3-5% vs. 20%. Slim.

Wxman, a circulation is very evident to me at least looping the RAMMB floater (link below so members can judge themselves), plus 850MB vorticity charts suggest the vorticity has increased noticeably overnight (posted above). Convection continues to build this morning around this area of vorticity and best track shows 1008MB. UKMET now shows some development in the Gulf of Honduras.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Sanibel]

Actually though weak the Low has the best centered form it has had since BOC. It's ducked down off east Honduras to the only place it could survive over water. The dry air penetrated all the way down the Yucatan but 94 is just off the edge of it and still in the warm moist tropics. The SST's are probably taking a wack and there might not be much to support 94 if it rebounds and heads NW. It's mostly a technical feature.

[stormlover2013]

Guys it's not developing lol get over it!!! It's poof cya later been like this for 5 days

[blp]

The vorticity has been getting streched out the last several hours like the Euro was predicting. I think it has moved too far SE and if it does develop it will move in quickly into Honduras. Euro so far has got the best hold on this IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

I've given up on this days ago after it dissipated just after landfall on the Yucatan. The well forecasted and anticipated dry air has made it's way well into the NW Caribbean as of now so development chances should actually be at 0% on the NHC TWO, not 10/20%. Hopefully they finally down those chances to reality at the 2pm TWO. Besides the only two models that develop this are the UKMET and NAVGEM (shocking) which are both horrible models. So it's time to look at reality and move along!

[floridasun78]

let nhc say if 0/0 10/20 if think still got chance still got chance their know better us their are pro

[blp]

:uarrow: I've given up on this days ago after it dissipated just after landfall on the Yucatan. The well forecasted and anticipated dry air has made it's way well into the NW Caribbean as of now so development chances should actually be at 0% on the NHC TWO, not 10/20%. Hopefully they finally down those chances to reality at the 2pm TWO. Besides the only two models that develop this are the UKMET and NAVGEM (shocking) which are both horrible models. So it's time to look at reality and move along!

The Ukmet has been proven to be a very reliable model. IMO second best to the Euro. Now the Euro has the best handle right now but any deviation North and it stays over water even the Euro would develop as evidence by the tightening of the vorticity in 24hrs. The difference is the Euro keeps it over land.

[blp]

If it does develop and gain some strength it will ejected NE.

[blp]

Interesting ensembles. More members keep it around longer and most keep it offshore than yesterday. Let's see if the trend continues and the operational run adjusts.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A 1436z ASCAT pass shows a broad area of low pressure northeast of the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

[galaxy401]

As long as this disturbance remains, I'm still keeping an eye on it.

[floridasun78]

it looking better what look this time saturday

[blp]

A 1436z ASCAT pass shows a broad area of low pressure northeast of the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

[]http://i.imgur.com/6Z439u6.gif[/img]

Interesting, better than I thought it would look. Needs to stop any more movement south if it has any chance.

[NDG]

ASCAT along with hr visible satellite loops shows that 94L is not clearly dead yet.
Yes, drier air in the upper 60s dewpoints on the western side of the circulation but by no means is a killer, 20% chance of redevelopment is good for me for now, not any higher because both GFS and Euro are very persistent on it moving towards C.A. before it has a chance to do anything.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just east of
the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some during the past several hours, any
redevelopment of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next few days
due to proximity to land and unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made around 11:30 AM EDT.

[SeGaBob]

:uarrow: I've given up on this days ago after it dissipated just after landfall on the Yucatan. The well forecasted and anticipated dry air has made it's way well into the NW Caribbean as of now so development chances should actually be at 0% on the NHC TWO, not 10/20%. Hopefully they finally down those chances to reality at the 2pm TWO. Besides the only two models that develop this are the UKMET and NAVGEM (shocking) which are both horrible models. So it's time to look at reality and move along!

Why don't you look at reality? It isn't dead yet... I'm getting sick of these kind of posts.

[stormlover2013]

Guys this thing is poof