ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

Another look at the 00Z models...

[img]http://i60.tinypic.com/2lx9zxj.jpg

Only 1 semi-reliable model (BAMD) show a real recurve now. Lbar and Clp5 do also fwiw.

[Yellow Evan]

Another look at the 00Z models...

[img]http://i60.tinypic.com/2lx9zxj.jpg

Only 1 semi-reliable model (BAMD) show a real recurve now. Lbar and Clp5 do also fwiw.

Hardly. BANMS has a south bias, and the HWFI is pretty much an interpolated version of HWFR.

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 18Z is back to a recurve east of the Bahamas.

So only the HWRF/UKMET/GEM (12Z GEM) are west. All the other models are showing a recurve.

Overall 24 hour trend with models is less of a U.S. threat.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Seems like a high probability 96L will turn N east of the Bahamas based on what we know now. Just can't go against what the Euro/GFS is showing.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems like a high probability 96L will turn N east of the Bahamas based on what we know now. Just can't go against what the Euro/GFS is showing.

It's also tough to go against what the HWRF is showing, given how good it's been this year.

[bamajammer4eva]

Another look at the 00Z models...

[img]http://i60.tinypic.com/2lx9zxj.jpg

Only 1 semi-reliable model (BAMD) show a real recurve now. Lbar and Clp5 do also fwiw.

Hardly. BANMS has a south bias, and the HWFI is pretty much an interpolated version of HWFR.

One of the maps above was wrong because one shows Bams with the sharpest right turn of all models and the other shows it with a track similar to hwrf but both say 00z

[SFLcane]

FIM-9 18Z is back to a recurve east of the Bahamas.

So only the HWRF/UKMET/GEM (12Z GEM) are west. All the other models are showing a recurve.

Overall 24 hour trend with models is less of a U.S. threat.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually some of those models from 18z now showing a westward bend. I would not discount anything right now.

[floridasun78]

so sign good look their going be good weakness east of fl and us coast watch hurr dont hurt any more maybe Bermuda need watch it

[Miami Storm Tracker]

so sign good look their going be good weakness east of fl and us coast watch hurr dont hurt any more maybe Bermuda need watch it

I do not think that is what SFL CANE is saying, he is saying some of the models have shifted back to the west. I am sure they will continue to shift left and right ubtil we get a true COC to track.

[AdamFirst]

One of the promets (Alonyo, I think) emphasized yesterday that a stronger storm would have less forward speed and less of a chance of being captured by the weakness if it gets filled - a weaker storm would move faster and turn to the weakness. HWRF (and the BAM-D model for strong storms) is essentially taking that scenario into accountability.

For the Bahamas and Florida's sake, hope for a weak storm, or no development at all.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

I am reading this right is this 00z run of the GFS? If so it is even further East and HWRF is still to the west.

[Hurricane Andrew]

^0z GFS is still an hour from running. And look at the NGFSL on that map. 0.o

[AdamFirst]

I am reading this right is this 00z run of the GFS? If so it is even further East and HWRF is still to the west.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/33e3h54.jpg

Those are the 18z models, valid at around 5 PM eastern time.

New models will begin to roll at 11:30 or so

[Hurricaneman]

I am reading this right is this 00z run of the GFS? If so it is even further East and HWRF is still to the west.

thats the 18zGFS, the 0zGFS comes out in about an hour

[Miami Storm Tracker]

One of the promets (Alonyo, I think) emphasized yesterday that a stronger storm would have less forward speed and less of a chance of being captured by the weakness if it gets filled - a weaker storm would move faster and turn to the weakness. HWRF (and the BAM-D model for strong storms) is essentially taking that scenario into accountability.

For the Bahamas and Florida's sake, hope for a weak storm, or no development at all.

Thats is correct, have seen several post changing what he said I was the one asking him to clarify that question. It some how got turned around, thanks AdamFirst.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

I am reading this right is this 00z run of the GFS? If so it is even further East and HWRF is still to the west.

thats the 18zGFS, the 0zGFS comes out in about an hour

That is what I thought but it looks different than 18z run. That 18z run was further west. I know when 00z runs normally. Maybe a bad graphic from Dr. Masters. Jist thought they had some updated info.

[Bocadude85]

I am reading this right is this 00z run of the GFS? If so it is even further East and HWRF is still to the west.

thats the 18zGFS, the 0zGFS comes out in about an hour

That is what I thought but it looks different than 18z run. That 18z run was further west. I know when 00z runs normally. Maybe a bad graphic from Dr. Masters. Jist thought they had some updated info.

That's not the 18z HWRF either...the 18z was offshore and further south

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am reading this right is this 00z run of the GFS? If so it is even further East and HWRF is still to the west.

thats the 18zGFS, the 0zGFS comes out in about an hour

That is what I thought but it looks different than 18z run. That 18z run was further west. I know when 00z runs normally. Maybe a bad graphic from Dr. Masters. Jist thought they had some updated info.

Evening B sent you a mess when you can check it.

[tolakram]

GFS 0Z initialized

[tolakram]

3H, looks wrong right out of the gate.