ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.

What would that mean Aric

same as the last 24 hours...

[MaineWeatherNut]

I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.

What would that mean Aric

It means that there are multiple LLCs all rotating around the larger MLC. It needs to get rid of the other LLCs and form a single aligned Center of Rotation under the MLC and then start to tighten up before it can really start to organize.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.

What would that mean Aric

same as the last 24 hours...

The track shifted to the west abit or what

[cfltrib]

The weather station at Settlement Pointe, Grand Bahama has had dropping pressure and wind direction changing steadily from 230 to 220 to 210 degrees over the last 3 hours. To me, this indicates a slight southward drift at the surface.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[Aric Dunn]

recon found the center to the south of previous position..

[NDG]

Recon finding the lowest surface pressure a little further south closer to 27.5 & 79.3W but found the wind shift back at the previous fixed location.

Edit: to correct myself, they found the windshift a little further south as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finding the lowest surface pressure a little further south closer to 27.5 & 79.3W but found the wind shift back at the previous fixed location.

no the wind shift and pressure coincide south of the previous position... about 15 to 20 mile

[NDG]

Recon finding the lowest surface pressure a little further south closer to 27.5 & 79.3W but found the wind shift back at the previous fixed location.

no the wind shift and pressure coincide south of the previous position

Yes, you are right, I just edited it after looking at the raw data again.

[tropicwatch]

Call it stationary.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finding the lowest surface pressure a little further south closer to 27.5 & 79.3W but found the wind shift back at the previous fixed location.

no the wind shift and pressure coincide south of the previous position

Yes, you are right, I just edited it after looking at the raw data again.

about 15 to 20 mile south.. actually a bit sse ...

I bet on their next pass to the se and east quad they find another vort..

[weathernerdguy]

such a crazy storm.

[TheAustinMan]

Perhaps we are seeing a new, or maybe just the old circulation moving SSE, with what the recon is showing.

[Aric Dunn]

check multiple radar sites velocities ...appears the other vort is around 27.0n 78.8w moving the nne imbedded in the deep convection.. if the other vort recon just flew through again collapses this could take over..

[chaser1]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

Yeah Jonathan, I cant help but feel the same way.

I'm convinced that Arthur is still a bit "structurally challanged" and is seemingly tilted SSE to NNW, with the core structure of Arthur still anchored near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. This doesnt change the fact that upper air conditions are improving and Arthur's over-all structure is looking more impressive with time. Since I dont see any evidence of the mid level core moving closer to the coast (expanding perhaps, but not "moving"), it is only a matter of time for its mid level to begin reacting to the increase southerly steering flow, and then some distinct northward motion of the entire envelope should occur (by sometime tomm.)... and here I am guessing we will see more significant deepening by a more vertically stacked system. I am guessing the motion at some point late tonight or early tomm. will be resolved by NHC indicating a temporary stall, and where in which the mid level circulation begins to catch up with the lower pressure COC.

And so..., Arthur is basically stationary... and the forming southerly eyewall, was in fact likely the mid level center that recon few away from, just to fix a center of lowest pressure well to the NNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Perhaps we are seeing a new, or maybe just the old circulation moving SSE, with what the recon is showing.

yeah you can watch in on radar velocities dropping to the s ...

[Frank2]

Pardon the hot link but the current VIS loop shows the broad LLC east of Melbourne - certainly looks more organized from 8 hours ago, but still ingesting dry hot air from North Florida and Georgia:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Also checking the wind report out of GBI the direction has shifted more sw .. given the position of the new vort to its north it makes logical sense...
and radar out of melbourne and palm beach showing banding developing into the the vort north of GBI... it could take over..

[eastcoastFL]

WHOA! My local forecast just took a dramatic turn. It was chance of heavy rain with wind 15mph gusts to 20MPH

and now

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with a north northeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[Frank2]

But at least that's knowing the system is to your north, not east or south, so that makes it easier to deal with : )

[Aric Dunn]

recon appears to be flying to the possible new vort.. or could just be their flight pattern.. lol