EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Here is the ASCAT.

[galaxy401]

Did ASCAT miss the center? If it didn't then it doesn't look closed yet.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

...THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHWEST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 102.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Did ASCAT miss the center? If it didn't then it doesn't look closed yet.

It looks good enough to me, given the low bias of ASCAT.

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to be no major land threat, though showers will likely linger over MX for today. It should pass south of Socorro Island.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Discussion came out late.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the
southwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the
past 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A
overpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had
uncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical
depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite
estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based
primarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data. The
cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California
and into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in
excellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion
throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is
similar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE.

Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly
in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images
indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet
juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level
circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry
slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in
visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a
result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for
the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water
and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less
than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air
are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON.

Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the
Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or
warnings along the coast of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[RL3AO]

Looks like a TS on visible but as nhc noted microwaveay suggest otherwise

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think we will see Cristina by the next update? Personally, I'd say either the one at 2 AM PDT tomorrow or the one at 8 AM PDT it will get upgraded.

[cycloneye]

It appears is building an inner core.

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone think we will see Cristina by the next update? Personally, I'd say either the one at 2 AM PDT tomorrow or the one at 8 AM PDT it will get upgraded.

I think it'll be a TS at 3z (the 8 PM PDT update).

[Kingarabian]

It appears is building an inner core.

Sure is:

[hurricanes1234]

That was fast.

[galaxy401]

Looks very well organized on satellite. This could rapidly intensify but we'll see.

[Ntxw]

RGB loop

[cycloneye]

Hello Cristina at 03Z advisory.

EP, 03, 2014061000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1019W, 35, 1004, TS

[hurricanes1234]

Salut, Cristina, comment ça va?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks very well organized on satellite. This could rapidly intensify but we'll see.

Some dry air is making it a little titled IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder if she could rapidly intensify like Amanda did. I'm loving the structure and the developing core, but it'll take some time due to the dry air getting involved.