WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Classic system continuing the pattern this month.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center has been
pulsating during the past several hours. Earlier ASCAT data suggest
that the circulation is becoming elongated, and based on Dvorak
classifications, the intensity has been lowered to 30 knots at this
time. Most of the global models...primarily the ECMWF, show
unfavorable upper-level winds over the depression, and this pattern
should result in gradual weakening. In addition, both intensity
consensus and LGEM models call for weakening, and so does the
official forecast. Some small fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the depression becomes a remnant low in about 3
days.

The depression is still embedded in the ITCZ, and has been moving
slowly westward or 270 degrees at 4 knots. However, as the
depression weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should be
steered by the low-level flow on the south side of the subtropical
ridge with an increase in forward speed. This forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.2N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

GFS intensifies this somewhat actually.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Strong westerly wind shear has become established over Genevieve
and the low-level center is now completely detached from the
remaining disorganized convection. The initial intensity is kept at
30 knots at this time, but given the current satellite presentation
and the hostile environment expected to prevail, the NHC forecast
calls for additional weakening. Genevieve could become a remnant low
as soon as tonight. If the low survives a few days, there is a
small chance of regeneration in the Central Pacific where the
upper-level environment could become a little more favorable.

The depression is moving westward at 7 knots, and since it has
become a shallow cyclone, it is now being steered by the low-level
flow south of the subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that
this subtropical ridge will not change much in position or
strength. This pattern should keep the depression or its remnants
moving generally westward for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 12.4N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 12.5N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 14.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1800Z 14.5N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The circulation of Genevieve was briefly devoid of deep convection
earlier this evening, however a recent convective burst near the
center has allowed the depression to maintain its status as a
tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 30 knots based on
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Despite the recent slight increase in
convective activity, Genevieve remains embedded within a strongly
sheared and drying environment and is forecast to become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Several models, most
notably the GFS, HWRF and GFDL, suggest that regeneration is
possible in a couple days after the low moves into the Central
Pacific and into a lower-shear environment. However given the
hostile current state of the near-storm environment, the official
forecast reflects the UKMET and ECMWF forecast of a shallow remnant
low persisting throughout the next 5 days.

The depression is accelerating westward at 9 knots, and continues to
be steered by low-level easterly flow south of the subtropical
ridge. The dynamical models unanimously suggest that this general
motion should continue for the next 48-72 hours. After that, there
is some disagreement whether the system will begin to turn toward
the northwest or remain on a westward heading. The official
forecast splits these scenarios and lies near the multi-model
consensus.

Genevieve is forecast to be located very near 140W at 0600 UTC.
Forecast advisories on Genevieve will be issued by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center after that longitude threshold is crossed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 12.5N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.6N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/0000Z 12.7N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 14.0N 148.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z 14.5N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah, I don't think we're done with Genevieve. Wind shear should start to decrease tomorrow morning, allowing for more consistent convection to develop over the low-level center assuming this hasn't degenerated yet. In addition, mid-level relative humidity values...currently in the 50s (%)...are expected to rise back into the 70s, which is conducive for intensification. The SHIPS/LGEM are not excited, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this strengthen, perhaps appreciably, over the next few days.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, I don't think we're done with Genevieve. Wind shear should start to decrease tomorrow morning, allowing for more consistent convection to develop over the low-level center assuming this hasn't degenerated yet. In addition, mid-level relative humidity values...currently in the 50s (%)...are expected to rise back into the 70s, which is conducive for intensification. The SHIPS/LGEM are not excited, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this strengthen, perhaps appreciably, over the next few days.

I wouldn't either, given the UKMET/Euro lack of skill in this part of the world. Still not expecting it though.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Genevieve continues to battle westerly shear. The low-level center
remains exposed to the west of the deep convection, which has been
pulsating during the past several hours. The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from
TAFB. The official forecast calls for little change in strength
during the next several days. Although the strength of the system
is not expected to change much, the depression is anticipated to
become a remnant low in the next 24 h due to the continued
influence of shear and dry air. Regeneration into a tropical
cyclone is possible, however, in a couple of days when the system
moves into a more favorable atmospheric environment.

The depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side
of a low- to mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is
expected during the next 24 to 48 hours, and that motion should
persist through the remainder of the forecast period. The official
track forecast is slightly slower than the previous one and near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Genevieve has crossed 140W longitude and, therefore, the next
advisory on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center. Forecast discussions can be found under AWIPS
header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.4N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 12.7N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1800Z 13.1N 144.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 13.9N 148.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0600Z 14.3N 149.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 14.9N 151.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

CPAC does not expect regeneration on the latest advisory.

WTPA32 PHFO 271445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST SUN JUL 27 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 141.1W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY IT BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE
MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Yellow Evan]

It's not certain, and I think the CPHC would rather favor climatology as well as the SHIPS/LGEM and show it dissipating.

[weathernerdguy]

I guess this is not going to be a bust?

[Yellow Evan]

Since someone forgot to post, the 15z disco here it is

WTPA42 PHFO 271504
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST SUN JUL 27 2014

WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT CONTINUES TO AFFECT GENEVIEVE EARLY THIS MORNING BASED
ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY COVERED BY THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. NOTE
THAT THE CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO SUGGESTED THE SYSTEM MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 9
KT SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE
PREVIOUS ONE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...
FLORIDA.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH CALLS
FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF GENEVIEVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED NEGATIVE INFLUENCE
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR. REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE...IF IT DOES BECOME A REMNANT LOW...IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 12.6N 142.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 12.9N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 13.2N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 14.0N 148.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1200Z 14.5N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 272050
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 27 2014

PULSING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURED GENEVIEVE/S LLCC OVERNIGHT...
BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT IS ONCE AGAIN COMPLETELY
EXPOSED...AND IS WELL WEST OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STRONG
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INJECT DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE/S
CIRCULATION...PROVIDING A HARSH ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZATION. LATEST
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND PHFO ARE 2.0/30
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT THIS VALUE.

THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE WEST THIS MORNING...
280/11 KT...WITH THE SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITHIN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES TO SEE DAY 5...IT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGES
STRENGTHEN TO ITS NORTH.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION
BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND SHIPS GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY STEADILY INCREASING
THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME RANGE...WITH
PEAK INTENSITY REACHING NEAR 50 KT. RECENT HISTORY AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT GENEVIEVE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM CAN
SURVIVE UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES...THEREBY MAKING THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A CHALLENGE. IN LIGHT OF THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 12.5N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.8N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.0N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 13.3N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 13.6N 147.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 14.2N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 14.7N 150.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 15.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 280243
TCDCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 PM HST SUN JUL 27 2014

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS ALL THAT
REMAINS OF GENEVIEVE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY SPORADIC DEEP
CONVECTION OBSERVED EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
SYSTEM HAS SUCCUMBED TO PERSISTENTLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...AND IS
NOW CONSIDERED TO BE A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST...280/13 KT. THE REMNANT OF
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO
THE SOUTH OF A LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SLOWING IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND PASSES WELL SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE. SOME ACCELERATION WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE LATEST FORECAST
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS...BUT INDICATES A
FASTER FORWARD MOTION...AND IS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN STRENGTHENING GENEVIEVE...
AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEYOND THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT ALL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5...AND THUS THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A WEAK LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT REGENERATION MAY OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IF THE
LLCC REMAINS INTACT...OUTFLOW ALOFT FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST
OF GENEVIEVE MAY BE UNDER-REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE DEBILITATING SHEAR.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 12.7N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 28/1200Z 13.0N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0000Z 13.5N 147.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 13.9N 148.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 14.3N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 14.6N 151.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 15.5N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

1. The remnant low of former tropical depression Genevieve is currently located about 780 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for development of this system as it continues to move westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. The weak remnant low of former tropical depression Genevieve is currently located about 670 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for redevelopment of this system as it continues to move west near 10 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Saved loop--looks like Genevieve is back in action.

[Yellow Evan]

1. The remnant low of former tropical depression Genevieve was located about 620 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The surrounding environment has become more favorable for this system to redevelop as it continues to move west near 10 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

[Hurricane_Luis]

07E GENEVIEVE 140729 1800 12.9N 148.0W EPAC 30 1009

Best track shows a TD.

[Yellow Evan]

On time for once

WTPA42 PHFO 292031
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GENEVIEVE IS SLOWLY RESTRENGTHENING FAR
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THUS GENEVIEVE IS
NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS ALONG WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INFLUENCED BY LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES GENEVIEVE WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
GENEVIEVE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE
LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LESSEN
EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH
5 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.9N 148.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.0N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.1N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.2N 151.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.3N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.6N 154.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 14.0N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 14.5N 159.7W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE