CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

#81 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:54 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:With that said, I have to admit this looks crappy on IR.

Trying to rival Bertha.

#82 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:27 pm

Still looks ragged, though less lopsided. I guess it is deepening though.

xtyphooncyclonex · #83 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:39 pm

Iselle vs Halong :lol:

Well I first have thought that this would intensify faster than the sheared Halong yesterday, well, there you go. But still, Iselle is in marginally favorable conditions.. I like Iselle's banding and shape, but I am unimpressed with the very thin convection.

#84 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:06 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 AUG 2014 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 14:33:26 N Lon : 126:43:48 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.0mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : -19.3C Cloud Region Temp : -55.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.6 degrees

#85 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:07 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 012343
TCSENP

A. 09E (ISELLE)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 14.5N

D. 126.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY MG FOR DT=4.5.
MET=3.5 WITH PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1826Z 14.2N 126.1W AMSU
01/2144Z 14.4N 126.6W AMSU

...SALEMI

#86 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:36 pm

Based on that, I'd go with 65 knts.

#87 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:41 pm

EP, 09, 2014080200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1269W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 40, 1009, 170, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, M,

#88 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:01 pm

IMO they should've switched the scene type to EYE earlier.

#89 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:IMO they should've switched the scene type to EYE earlier.

I think they held off due to convection waning earlier.

#90 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:07 pm

Pretty sure we'll have Hurricane Iselle at 5PM.

SAB/TAFB both came in at 4.0 and ADT is at 4.5. Iselle's evident eye on visible imagery also helps.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

xtyphooncyclonex · #91 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:08 pm

60 kts-995 mb? 995 mb would be 35-45 kts! IMO that pressure is awfully high...

#92 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:11 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:60 kts-995 mb? 995 mb would be 35-45 kts! IMO that pressure is awfully high...

It's not. Dvorak used in the WPAC/SHEM has lower pressures than Dvorak used in the EPAC/ATL.

#93 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:13 pm

Also the WPAC relationship isn't exactly that different as Atlantic/EPAC based on surface obs and recon of recent storms. 995 there would still be about 50-60 kt for a storm of Iselle's size.

#94 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Pretty sure we'll have Hurricane Iselle at 5PM.

SAB/TAFB both came in at 4.0 and ADT is at 4.5. Iselle's evident eye on visible imagery also helps.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We might IMO.

I think they'll revise the forecast peak upwards as well.

#95 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:16 pm

The T4.5 might be a bit on the high side due to the rather weak convection despite the eye - it is possible that winds may not be reaching the surface effectively. 65 kt seems reasonable.

#96 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The T4.5 might be a bit on the high side due to the rather weak convection despite the eye - it is possible that winds may not be reaching the surface effectively. 65 kt seems reasonable.

ADT is mostly based off of Microwave appearance I think.

#97 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:58 pm

EP, 09, 2014080200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1269W, 65, 992, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 90, 40, 70, 1009, 170, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, M,
EP, 09, 2014080200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1269W, 65, 992, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 40, 1009, 170, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, M,
EP, 09, 2014080200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1269W, 65, 992, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 15, 1009, 170, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, M,

ATCF revised to 65 knts.

#98 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:05 pm

UW-CIMSS has Hurricane Iselle as well.

#99 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:UW-CIMSS has Hurricane Iselle as well.

They probs will upgrade it, but it lost the eye.

#100 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:23 pm

This is probably what made ADT happy:

CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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