ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[HurricaneTracker2031]

S Fl better hope the BAMM or GFS ensemble mean tracks don't pan out. A storm coming off Hispaniola has plenty of warm water to intensify prior to reaching S Florida.

Interesting solution, I live here in South Florida. We will watch this one carefully

[Hurricane Andrew]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

180 hours from now:

Woah. What direction is it heading at this point?

[pgoss11]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

180 hours from now:

Is that on a NW heading here?

[gatorcane]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

180 hours from now:

Woah. What direction is it heading at this point?

NW slowly...here is a loop so you can the full run:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2014081918&set=Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

180 hours from now:
http://i62.tinypic.com/szex42.jpg

At least the NOGAPS isn't a reliable model.

[Jevo]

18z GEM (Canadian) 850mb wind speeds 10 days

[HurricaneTracker2031]

sflcane I couldn't get the image for the 18z nogaps you mentioned. Could you repost?
Thank you.

180 hours from now:
http://i62.tinypic.com/szex42.jpg

At least the NOGAPS isn't a reliable model.

Interesting, its headed in my direction there We will see

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z GEM (Canadian) 850mb wind speeds 10 days

Poor Florida...seems most models effect some part of Florida with this, either directly or skirting effects.

[SFLcane]

whoa...

[HurricaneTracker2031]

18z GEM (Canadian) 850mb wind speeds 10 days

Poor Florida...seems most models effect some part of Florida with this, either directly or skirting effects.

Yup. Maybe a FL hit. Its been awhile and it may be time, IMO.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GEM (Canadian) 850mb wind speeds 10 days

http://i.imgur.com/5gIswtX.png

That's the 12z GEM run. The GEM model only runs at 0z and 12z.

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z GEM (Canadian) 850mb wind speeds 10 days

Poor Florida...seems most models effect some part of Florida with this, either directly or skirting effects.

Yup. Maybe a FL hit. Its been awhile and it may be time, IMO.

Not to mention the precip totals on that run...0.o 6-10+" all across the Floridian spine.

PS: I know it's the GEM, but it may show a more accurate representation of 96L interacting with the weakness.

[TheStormExpert]

So the models go from Texas to the E. Gulf then back towards Texas to now some of the unreliable models showing a Florida hit. Models have really done some shifting around in the last 24hrs. We should probably wait until this becomes a TC before really putting a lot of stock in each individual model.

[Nimbus]

They will sweep the models west if 96L doesn't spin up.
That weak TUTT north of Puerto Rico is still producing 30 knots of shear from the south.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

:uarrow: So the models go from Texas to the E. Gulf then back towards Texas to now some of the unreliable models showing a Florida hit. Models have really done some shifting around in the last 24hrs. We should probably wait until this becomes a TC before really putting a lot of stock in each individual model.

Agreed. The track is still uncertain at this time.

[tropicwatch]

:uarrow: So the models go from Texas to the E. Gulf then back towards Texas to now some of the unreliable models showing a Florida hit. Models have really done some shifting around in the last 24hrs. We should probably wait until this becomes a TC before really putting a lot of stock in each individual model.

Kind of fun to watch the models go "which way did he go" at this point

[Blown Away]

00z...


00z... Seems like Hispaniola is always in play...


18z...

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEM (Canadian) 850mb wind speeds 10 days

Poor Florida...seems most models effect some part of Florida with this, either directly or skirting effects.

Yup. Maybe a FL hit. Its been awhile and it may be time, IMO.

I have heard many saying this for the past several years at least when a model shows a current storm hitting Florida. Thankfully it's the Canadian.

[Hurricane Andrew]

00z...


00z... Seems like Hispaniola is always in play...


18z...

With regards to Hispaniola, it depends where the COC travels. If it goes north or south of the island, it will pull back together a lot quicker than if the center drags over the mountains.

[TheStormExpert]

http://i58.tinypic.com/bxuyq.jpg
00z...

http://i59.tinypic.com/24driae.jpg
00z... Seems like Hispaniola is always in play...

http://i57.tinypic.com/30jp8aq.jpg
18z...

Just imagine if the Greater Antilles(esp. Hispanola) were not there!

Just think of all the storms that could have been MUCH worse for the U.S. or any landmass in it's path.