ATL: DOLLY - Models

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#81 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:47 am

FIM model also in agreement with the ECMWF and GFS with ex 97L Mexico bound:

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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 97L - Models

#82 Postby HeeBGBz » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:33 am

What is that storm further east? That one looks a bit worrisome.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 97L - Models

#83 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:00 am

HeeBGBz wrote:What is that storm further east? That one looks a bit worrisome.


Here is the thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116663
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#84 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:44 pm

The 12zGFS moves this into the BOC and stalls it here for like 9 days before finally moving it NE after that, I seriously doubt thats going to happen as the GFS likes to stall things there longer than reality dictates

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#85 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:51 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zGFS moves this into the BOC and stalls it here for like 9 days before finally moving it NE after that, I seriously doubt thats going to happen as the GFS likes to stall things there longer than reality dictates

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Yeah, I doubt very much that if this system, if it develops, gets buried down into the BOC like the GFS wants to do. Now, I recognize that systems have stalled down there and it is not uncommon for sure. But, the models I like to also see (EURO and UKMET) all show impressive deep layered ridging across the SE U.S. going into next week and with that set up, I would definitely be inclined to go with this system eventually headed for Northern Mexico down the road next week.
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Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#86 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:52 pm

It wasn't nine days but similar to an Eloise 75' situation.
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#87 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:57 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:It wasn't nine days but similar to an Eloise 75' situation.


This could happen if the trough hasn't completely lifted out as it develops but no model at this time depicts this scenerio

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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 97L - Models

#88 Postby HeeBGBz » Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:36 pm

Thanks Gatorcane. There are things popping up all over.
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#89 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:05 pm

0zNAM agrees with the GFS and CMC and a possible TC in the BOC early next week....Just remember that the NAM is not a tropical model just posting for fun!

0zNAM 84hrs
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#90 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:09 am

0zCMC back to its old tricks!

132hrs
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 97L - Models

#91 Postby Bizzles » Fri Aug 29, 2014 10:03 am

HeeBGBz wrote:Thanks Gatorcane. There are things popping up all over.

You have to thing something has to come of all this eventually!
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#92 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:25 pm

12Z CMC has nothing through 3 days. Major change from the 0Z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#93 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:51 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992014) 20140830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140830 0000 140830 1200 140831 0000 140831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 80.9W 16.1N 83.8W 17.3N 86.6W 18.4N 89.4W
BAMD 15.1N 80.9W 15.8N 83.1W 16.5N 85.0W 17.2N 86.8W
BAMM 15.1N 80.9W 16.1N 83.4W 17.0N 85.7W 17.9N 88.0W
LBAR 15.1N 80.9W 15.9N 83.3W 16.9N 85.8W 18.2N 88.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140901 0000 140902 0000 140903 0000 140904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 91.7W 20.5N 95.4W 20.6N 97.8W 20.6N 100.5W
BAMD 17.8N 88.5W 19.0N 91.5W 19.7N 94.0W 20.5N 97.2W
BAMM 18.6N 90.0W 19.6N 93.4W 20.1N 96.1W 20.6N 99.2W
LBAR 19.5N 90.6W 22.4N 94.7W 24.5N 97.3W 26.5N 99.9W
SHIP 50KTS 66KTS 77KTS 85KTS
DSHP 30KTS 43KTS 54KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 80.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 77.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#94 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:53 pm

First runs graphically

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#95 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:58 am

GFS weaker on the 12Z. Think the development chances may be decreasing
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#96 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:22 am

:uarrow: No worries 99L still has support from the 12zNAM and about 3 0z ECMWF Ensemble Members......lol I just hope we can get some moisture up to South Texas.

0zNAM 84hrs
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#97 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:45 pm

No development from the 12Z ECMWF either.
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#98 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:24 pm

EC actually does slightly develop this. Have to use the full EC though to see it
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#99 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:20 pm

Don't fear the 0zNAM is here!!

0zNAM 75hrs
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Re:

#100 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:24 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Don't fear the 0zNAM is here!!

0zNAM 75hrs
Image

(For Entertainment Purposes Only) :lol:
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