ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ronjon]

Latest models show it taking nearly 48 hours to reach the coast - centers about 250 miles east of WPB - that 5 mph.

[floridasun78]

i agree time not on it side because close to land but time will tell

[NDG]

When I saw 92L this morning with a nice vorticity, no shear over it, in a moist environment it just did made sense to me that it was naked of convection, being over the area of best environmental conditions in the whole Atlantic so far this season.

[Sanibel]

Maybe NHC sees that dry air to its S and SE.

[NDG]

i agree time not on it side because close to land but time will tell

I don't think the Bahamian Islands do much against organization, S FL maybe, but remember that the gulf stream is right in front of SE FL so in a very short time tropical systems gain strength right before tracking across S FL with some not loosing much strength because of the very flat terrain and marshy areas of the Everglades.
The only thing that would act against strengthening is if the northerly shear from the southern US ridge reach over 92L over the next couple of days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, this will be a good station to keep an eye on over the next day or so if this things tracks west as it's currently progged to do.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Nothing interesting in terms of pressure falls or wind there yet, but this is a very compact low so not surprised. Will be interesting to see what happens overnight for sure!

My opinion, listen to the experts, etc., etc.!

[Dean4Storms]

One other item going for it is that it is small and already has a good vort, could develop quickly given low shear and warm SST's.

I'm bullish on development myself.

[NDG]

Plenty of north and NNW winds reported from the Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas which is just west of 92L.

[Dean4Storms]

Plenty of north and NNW winds reported from the Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas which is just west of 92L.

I'd bet from just seeing sat. imagery that it already has a small LLC.

[SeGaBob]

I don't think it will take much more to be classified a TD if it isn't one now...but I'm no expert.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.

Thanks for the buoy link that will help! The center circulation looks about the size of a tornado ATM.
Never a go fast boat around when you need one..

[NDG]

I don't think it will take much more to be classified a TD if it isn't one now...but I'm no expert.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I doubt that it is a TD, that it might have a closed circulation and a weak LLC no doubt, outside of the convection winds look to be weak at the moment, surface pressures have to start dropping so that some pressure gradient starts going.

[Dean4Storms]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.

Thanks for the buoy link that will help! The center circulation looks about the size of a tornado ATM.
Never a go fast boat around when you need one..

That will be key, with it running out of ocean soon it needs to sustain convection overnight for it to be much by the time it reaches the FL coast.

[blp]

500mb level still has work to do. 850 and 700 are stacked. This is two hours old though.

[NDG]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.

Thanks for the buoy link that will help! The center circulation looks about the size of a tornado ATM.
Never a go fast boat around when you need one..

That will be key, with it running out of ocean soon it needs to sustain convection overnight for it to be much by the time it reaches the FL coast.

It has a good 48 hrs before reaching S FL.

[Dean4Storms]

Noting latest sat imagery of new convection popping on southern periphery of the overall center.

[Dean4Storms]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.

Thanks for the buoy link that will help! The center circulation looks about the size of a tornado ATM.
Never a go fast boat around when you need one..

That will be key, with it running out of ocean soon it needs to sustain convection overnight for it to be much by the time it reaches the FL coast.

It has a good 48 hrs before reaching S FL.

Yes and by much I meant much of a Tropical Storm if it were not to sustain convection tonight.

[blp]

Noting latest sat imagery of new convection popping on southern periphery of the overall center.

That is a good sign because yesterday around this time convection collasped. Let's see how it handles the Dmin.

[gatorcane]

Noting latest sat imagery of new convection popping on southern periphery of the overall center.

That is a good sign because yesterday around this time convection collasped. Let's see how it handles the Dmin.

Indeed very good sign let's see if it continues to build.

[jlauderdal]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.

Thanks for the buoy link that will help! The center circulation looks about the size of a tornado ATM.
Never a go fast boat around when you need one..

That will be key, with it running out of ocean soon it needs to sustain convection overnight for it to be much by the time it reaches the FL coast.

if it can maintain and increase convection overnight and then we get euro support on next run we have something to deal with..those two conditions need to be met