ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Stormcenter]

Not trying to jinx anyone here but it wouldn't be too funny if this thing wound up in the VERY steamy GOM and became somethig really serious.
I'm not saying it will happen.

Some 12Z runs

Time to start boarding up and gassing up vehicles and generators.

[tropicwatch]

Always a possibility this time of year and it will have almost a week in the gulf according to the models.

[floridasun78]

hope gas price dont go high because been dropping . so let hope we dont get strong ts or hurr in gulf

[HURRICANELONNY]

The trough is not going to be as strong as first thought. So that map is plausible. The NWS change forecast for next week to just normal afternoon inland storms. Was suppose to be a SW flow by next week but I guess the front not going far enough south now.

[bamajammer4eva]

12z GFS has no development but takes the Vorticity to Houston tx by 90 thru at least 114 hrs

[HeeBGBz]

I thought Texas didn't get the storms in October? I think it's gonna head that way then recurve and hit the northern coast. But ya never know. Just my unprofessional opinion.

[Stormcenter]

GFS.................that's all I will say.

12z GFS has no development but takes the Vorticity to Houston tx by 90 thru at least 114 hrs

[tropicwatch]

Hey its 12 out to lunch.

[Tireman4]

I thought Texas didn't get the storms in October? I think it's gonna head that way then recurve and hit the northern coast. But ya never know. Just my unprofessional opinion.

Let me see. One that I remember. Jerry. 1989....


Hurricane Jerry caused minor damage in Texas and flash flooding in Kentucky and Virginia in October 1989. The fourteenth tropical cyclone, tenth named storm of the season, Jerry developed from a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche on October 12. Initially a tropical depression, the system moved north-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and strengthened into Tropical Storm Jerry early on the following day. Jerry continuously deepened until October 14 and then maintained intensity while curving northeastward and briefly decelerating. Later that day, the storm re-curved north-northwestward. Jerry began to intensify on October 15 and soon became a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Early on October 16, Jerry made landfall on Galveston Island, Texas with winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). Less than six hours later, Jerry weakened to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression shortly thereafter. Late on October 16, Jerry was absorbed by a frontal system while situated over southwestern Arkansas.

[HeeBGBz]

One of those storms that stop and do woop-de-doos and then come batch at you after you thought you were out of the woods.. Elena in '85 made me AWOL for a day.

[bamajammer4eva]

12z Canadian looks a good bit weaker than the 00z did valid at 18z Sunday at about the same location.

[N2Storms]

Tallahassee NWS is in the camp that sends 92L west to Texas and I'm inclined to agree with them. Here is a snippet from this morning's AFD:


Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Although weak upper ridging will continue locally, we will see a
gradual increase in deep local moisture through the weekend. The
stalled front to our north will get slowly nudged to the south on
Saturday becoming quasi-stationary across our CWA on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave well south of our coastal waters is
forecast to stay on a westward coarse heading toward Texas.

[Senobia]

Not trying to jinx anyone here but it wouldn't be too funny if this thing wound up in the VERY steamy GOM and became somethig really serious.
I'm not saying it will happen.

No, it wouldn't be 'funny'. It would be a disaster and possibly create life or death scenarios for thousands of people, which is hardly 'funny'.

[Senobia]

I was kind of hoping 92L would stay shallow enough that it would come back to Florida and give us some rain for the winter wells.
Mexico doesn't need a cat 3.

Nobody needs a Cat 3, but 1. where did you see a Cat 3 and 2. where did you see Mexico?

[bamajammer4eva]

Tallahassee NWS is in the camp that sends 92L west to Texas and I'm inclined to agree with them. Here is a snippet from this morning's AFD:


Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Although weak upper ridging will continue locally, we will see a
gradual increase in deep local moisture through the weekend. The
stalled front to our north will get slowly nudged to the south on
Saturday becoming quasi-stationary across our CWA on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave well south of our coastal waters is
forecast to stay on a westward coarse heading toward Texas.

It looks like only the models that turn 92L around before reaching Texas really develop it. It sounds like NWS Tallahassee is going with the ones that continue West into Tx. With the way they have backed off on the idea of cooler weather arriving it would seem that fronts and troughs that would make this do a Uturn aren't making it as far as models say.

[Senobia]

I thought Texas didn't get the storms in October? I think it's gonna head that way then recurve and hit the northern coast. But ya never know. Just my unprofessional opinion.

We're in September.......

[HeeBGBz]

I thought Texas didn't get the storms in October? I think it's gonna head that way then recurve and hit the northern coast. But ya never know. Just my unprofessional opinion.

We're in September.......

Ohhh, lol. As Emily Lattella used to say..Nevermind.

[Stormcenter]

You totally missed my point, my funny part is in reference to several posts making fun of the lack of effects from 92L as it crosses Florida and NOT instead taking it seriously as something that has the "potential" be become more when you consider the time of year and where it is headed. I personally take all disturbances seriously. We also still put too much weight on what all the models have to say. We all know too well now they can sometimes be right on or sometimes way off so just because none the models are predicting 92L to become a TS or hurricane doesn't mean we should not take it seriously. IMO

Not trying to jinx anyone here but it wouldn't be too funny if this thing wound up in the VERY steamy GOM and became somethig really serious.
I'm not saying it will happen.

No, it wouldn't be 'funny'. It would be a disaster and possibly create life or death scenarios for thousands of people, which is hardly 'funny'.

[blp]

Some of the models are showing a very unusual September track with the system heading into the WGOM only to start tracking back almost due East at the end. The 12z ukmet is showing this. Hard to believe that will happen.

72hr
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

144hr
http://meteocentre.chttp://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gifm/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF showed this as well.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2014091206-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation