ATL: GONZALO - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Looking out to 108hrs on the GFS it looks like a recurve east of the Bahamas but could change as we get closer to crunch time

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

can we not blindly say weak equals west?

There is a stationary front between the system and Florida in the 0Z MU. Does not matter how intense this is. This should turn north

[SFLcane]

Not much to see at 108 hrs on the GFS. This thing looks horrible tonight think most forget its 2014.

[Alyono]

stationary front really weakens by 150 hours and the system really gets going. Looks stalled near TCI

[WPBWeather]

stationary front really weakens by 150 hours and the system really gets going. Looks stalled near TCI

TCI?

[Hurricaneman]

stationary front really weakens by 150 hours and the system really gets going. Looks stalled near TCI

TCI?

Turks and Caicos

[WPBWeather]

stationary front really weakens by 150 hours and the system really gets going. Looks stalled near TCI

TCI?

Turks and Caicos

Thanks!

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS traps it and it pretty much meanders for a few days in the Bahamas, but this seems so close to being between an up and out to possible stall or even a shove west if that ridge does bridge but as of now a stall and up and out or just plain up and out are the most likely

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hammy]

looks like the Euro went from several runs of a major hurricane to now showing not even a closed low through 120 hours.

[Nimbus]

If there is a 10% chance of the ridge bridging over that is still cause for concern for US interests.
Guess they are still modeling almost every possible scenario at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

Suprised they did not lower chances in the 8am TWO with the latest Euro and GFS runs barely showing any development from this.

[cycloneye]

SHIP continues bullish.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902014) 20141011 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141011 1200 141012 0000 141012 1200 141013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 54.3W 16.5N 56.1W 16.6N 58.0W 17.0N 59.8W
BAMD 15.9N 54.3W 16.3N 56.4W 16.6N 58.6W 16.8N 60.7W
BAMM 15.9N 54.3W 16.3N 56.1W 16.4N 58.1W 16.7N 60.2W
LBAR 15.9N 54.3W 16.6N 56.4W 17.1N 58.7W 17.9N 60.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141013 1200 141014 1200 141015 1200 141016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 61.7W 18.8N 66.0W 21.0N 69.8W 22.4N 72.0W
BAMD 17.1N 62.6W 18.6N 65.5W 20.8N 68.0W 22.5N 68.9W
BAMM 17.1N 62.3W 18.7N 66.3W 20.7N 69.5W 22.0N 71.3W
LBAR 18.7N 63.0W 20.9N 67.0W 24.2N 69.2W 28.0N 67.7W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 79KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 79KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Graphic of 12z run.Recurve is the trend.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS depicts a stronger trough it looks like and the system makes the connection with a much faster recurve than the 00Z GFS. Don't forget the 00Z ECMWF shows the system lingering in the SE Bahamas for a couple of days before finally getting kicked out in the long-range.

So yes the trend (for now) is for even a sharper recurve but still a lot of uncertainty.

[TheStormExpert]

06Z GFS depicts a stronger trough it looks like and the system makes the connection with a much faster recurve than the 00Z GFS. Don't forget the 00Z ECMWF shows the system lingering in the SE Bahamas for a couple of days before finally getting kicked out in the long-range.

So yes the trend (for now) is for even a sharper recurve but still a lot of uncertainty.

00z Euro doesn't even develop it more than a TD at best, you'd think in that case it would get left behind? The trend as of last nights models has been sharp recurve & much much weaker.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is back to being bullish again and looks to recurve north of Eastern Hispaniola

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Models showing fish for everyone. Thing is I thought a weaker system would be more likely to go west. Why is this one being predicted to be weaker but not go further west?

[gatorcane]

Models showing fish for everyone. Thing is I thought a weaker system would be more likely to go west. Why is this one being predicted to be weaker but not go further west?

According to the models which look in good agreement at the moment, the strong cold front that is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this coming week is going to veer the winds across the SW Atlantic to the S and SW in all layers of the atmosphere, even the steering in the lower layers where a weaker system would be steered by. Those winds should steer the system away from the U.S. and maybe even keep the system east of the Bahamas too though too early to say.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Okay thanks maybe I should just start saying that everything is always going to curve back out to sea because that has been the trend. Major storm out to sea. Any major threat to land curve out to sea. Weaker storm or lower level hurricane there is a chance. Just strange growing up hoping they would turn and now they just do it so much I forget they can keep going straight. Models are in good agreement and that is all I need to see.