ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

[cycloneye]

Aric,they found a small vortex East of the other one.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,they found a small vortex East of the other one.

yeah I posted that on the previous page lol

[chaser1]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

...though, perhaps not for the next couple hours. Anyone else happen to notice how "soft" the mid level cloud deck has become on Arthur‘s north & west quadrants?? Dry air intrusion?

[MaineWeatherNut]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

...though, perhaps not for the next couple hours. Anyone else happen to notice how "soft" the mid level cloud deck has become on Arthur‘s north & west quadrants?? Dry air intrusion?

This is the time of day when Convection is at it's lowest... Personally I would say it's from that. You have a new band of Convection developing in the southEast quad and wrapping around so I would say it's just a matter of time before that new convection wraps completely around.

[TheStormExpert]

Really sticky here in West Palm Beach with a dew point of 77°F, so overall it's feeling quite tropical out there.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TS Arthur is strengthening and looks a lot better than yesterday... It appears to be coming along nicely. I believe that further strengthening is possible and Arthur might be upgraded to a Hurricane if dramatic strengthening occurs. What you all think?


Analysis on Arthur and other Basins: http://goo.gl/H2WuC0

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

recon heading back in.. next 30 to 40 min going to be interesting...

[Hammy]

Given recon data, are there still probably multiple vorticies rotating around?

[Aric Dunn]

Given recon data, are there still probably multiple vorticies rotating around?

They all from everything I see they have elongated out and have all fallen apart only remnants of them..

[MaineWeatherNut]

Given recon data, are there still probably multiple vorticies rotating around?

They all from everything I see they have elongated out and have all fallen apart only remnants of them..

Including the new one you have been tracking? Not seeing much in terms of wind with the new one you have been tracking. Already down to a pressure of 1003.9 so unless the pressure has dropped more they are close to the center and haven't seen any winds over 30knots so far.

[Aric Dunn]

Given recon data, are there still probably multiple vorticies rotating around?

They all from everything I see they have elongated out and have all fallen apart only remnants of them..

Including the new one you have been tracking? Not seeing much in terms of wind with the new one you have been tracking. Already down to a pressure of 1003.9 so unless the pressure has dropped more they are close to the center and haven't seen any winds over 30knots so far.

they have not flown to the south of the new one.. check radar velocities.. its very clear.

[chaser1]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

...though, perhaps not for the next couple hours. Anyone else happen to notice how "soft" the mid level cloud deck has become on Arthur‘s north & west quadrants?? Dry air intrusion?

This is the time of day when Convection is at it's lowest... Personally I would say it's from that. You have a new band of Convection developing in the southEast quad and wrapping around so I would say it's just a matter of time before that new convection wraps completely around.

Well, diurnal min. was my first thought, yet the persistant banding on its eastern quadrant led me to think otherwise. I'm a bit more leary of dry air intrusion as evidenced by that dry pocket to Arthur‘s immed. north; that, and some minimal northerly shear that it may be experiencing. The more i think about it, present shear may be why we have thus far not had a maintained co-located center and why newly forming centers continue to spin northward only to weaken due to the mid-upper levels remaining temporarily trapped/pushed southward. All that may soon change soon enough though

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a partial eyewall forming on radar.. from ne - s

convection wrapping around to the north and nw side...

[Aric Dunn]

grr recon leaving..

like they avoided it.. lol

['CaneFreak]

Yep. Pretty nice rotation on radar. At this rate, we may have a closed eyeball by tonight.

Looks like a partial eyewall forming on radar.. from ne - s

convection wrapping around to the north and nw side...

[Aric Dunn]

Yep. Pretty nice rotation on radar. At this rate, we may have a closed eyeball by tonight.

Looks like a partial eyewall forming on radar.. from ne - s

convection wrapping around to the north and nw side...

yeah and possible a little RI in there..

[Aric Dunn]

ship report well to the ne where recon did not sample has sustained winds of 51kt




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[SeGaBob]

Is there a decent chance of this system getting big enough to give areas on the GA and SC coasts some rain even though it will be offshore a ways?

[NDG]

I don't know which one is more exciting, Arthur or the USA/Belgium game? We should had scored at the last minute, oh well.