ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[tolakram]

Yes. See link above.

That link shows Mexico dead center with one loan UKMet plot into the gulf.

[Bocadude85]

MASSIVE east shift by the EC

However, this rapid westward motion could place this west of the models

It did. See:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Interesting that 2 of the 3 18z BAMS have shifted west over Florida now....

[South Texas Storms]

Ukmet running yet

The 12z UKMET has this in the central Gulf in 120 hours.

[SFLcane]

Could see more westward shifts later tonight.

[stormlover2013]

Got any images?

[South Texas Storms]

Got any images?

Nah they aren't not out yet. I just got the text lat-lon positions from the UKMET official site. Images should be out here within the hour: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[stormlover2013]

Thanks

[Evil Jeremy]

Got any images?

It's always on the SFWMD plot first:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_96.gif

[stormlover2013]

Kinda of like the Ike track

[Blown Away]

Got any images?

It's always on the SFWMD plot first:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_96.gif

BAMD is the funniest, it had a super sharp recurve heading to Europe... Now it's up the W coast of Florida... I know, I know, about the BAM's...

[somethingfunny]

Here is the 12z UKMET

[TheStormExpert]

Got any images?

It's always on the SFWMD plot first:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_96.gif

One things for sure consensus has decreased again beyond 24-48hrs.

[stormlover2013]

@TropicalTidbits: 12z ECMWF still recurves 96L. Part of wave heads to gulf, maybe as separate system later.

[OuterBanker]

How interesting. Ships has dropped its steering level down to 943 mb from 867 mb. I realize that 1000 mb is sea level with 850 around 5k. Mets, explain why they would do this please.

[RevDodd]

Looks like it's in a footrace to reach the Grand Strand before getting yanked out to sea...

[ronjon]

I did notice that the newest BAM suite really slows down the storm motion barely crawling along from 72-120 hrs through the Bahamas on a NW path toward FL. Strange...I think the steering currents must collapse and that's why these models are having a tough time on track here beyond 72 hrs. We'll get a sign which way after 48 hrs as the recurve ones start moving the system north by then.

[SapphireSea]

How interesting. Ships has dropped its steering level down to 943 mb from 867 mb. I realize that 1000 mb is sea level with 850 around 5k. Mets, explain why they would do this please.

Only reason it would do that is that it assumes weaker and using lower level flow If I am not mistaken.

[NDG]

The one thing that makes me not want to throw out the window the latest 18z BAM models is that the euro has really slow down ejecting 96L out to sea since last night's run, in fact it almost stalls it out from Saturday night through Monday night, I also noticed that in its last run it cuts off the UL trough off the NE US by Tuesday and if that piece of energy gets sent southwestward by a building ridge to its north, it could then indeed push future Cristobal westward.

[Weatherboy1]

I can't recall a recent system that had such a widely divergent spread just a couple days out. As someone else noted this seems to be one of those systems that is either gonna take that far westward path or hook N and NE fairly quickly. Not much of an in between choice (just my opinion if course. Listen to the nhc, etc!)

[Steve]

As for the gulf system, we threw that out there yesterday. Several models showed rippled isobars, although not anything significant, crossing the south/south central Gulf. It didn't appear to be 96L as that was generally east of Florida in those runs. I figured it was remnant wave energy or possibly part of the forerunning system. It was just something to watch for To see if there was any energy down in the Gulf Monday. Increased shower chances for coastal Texas? Possibly. Stay tuned.