WPAC: INVEST 94W

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
164.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING - ALBEIT SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED - FEEDING
INTO A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
WHERE THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 151536
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 15/1432Z

C. 13.4N

D. 160.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A DT
OF LESS THAN 1.0. MET IS 1.0 WHILE THE PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS WHICH PREVENT LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS doesn't do much with this...