EPAC: INVEST 95E

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[hurricanes1234]

This system is running out of time. I personally don't see any significant development, if at all, beyond a 60 mph storm.

This is just my ameteur opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

We might see a weak tropical storm out of this, maybe 65 mph for the most. However, hurricane strength is becoming less and less likely every run. My question is, why did all of the model runs predict a major hurricane just a couple days ago? I am very new to tropical cyclone tracking, so this post is not in any way an official opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, IIRC they were predicting the storm to move more slowly and track over warmer waters.

What do you think this will peak as? A tropical storm? A hurricane?

Mid-level TS IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

Down to 50/60

Maybe the 90% 5-day chances were too high after all?

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE DISTURBANCE HAS
A BROAD AND COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH COLDER WATER WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[hurricanes1234]

It's quite a shock to know that this is the same area of disturbed weather that was forecast to become a major hurricane by several model runs. To me, it just looks like a regular cluster of offshore thunderstorms with no organisation or consolidation. I would only expect this to go downhill from here, seeing that it has a very poor structure, and also because the waters will start to cool soon. This is really just my opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

Down to 50/50%
= no development expected after 48 hours

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE
DISTURBANCE HAS A BROAD AND COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT COULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
COLDER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY...
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Extratropical94]

THE PORTION OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAD BEEN
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA IS DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY IN A DAY OR SO...AND
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

According to this outlook, this system is virtually finished. Now at near 0% for both 48 hours and 5 days.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVIOUSLY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED... AND DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Extratropical94]

Deactivated!

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[hurricanes1234]

Yet another failed invest.