WPAC: INVEST 94W

[jaguarjace]

In the South China Sea.

[Extratropical94]

JTWC: Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 115.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT 090400Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION WAS ELONGATED ALONG THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN
ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CIRCULATION (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN
ORGANIZATION, THE FAVORABLE SST VALUES, AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

View of the whole West Pacific, With invests labelled.

Invest 94W is on the Left hand side.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Stays a Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
115.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A
RECENT 090400Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION WAS ELONGATED ALONG
THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CIRCULATION
IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Extratropical94]

Downgraded to low.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE POLEWARD EDGE OF
THE LLCC. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND
BECOME MORE ELONGATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS ONLY SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
111.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.