EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[hurricanes1234]

Another achievement from Raymond - it has made it to its 40th advisory.


EDIT: Mended incorrect English.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF 25-30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS. SINCE THERE IS NO DATA FROM THE
CYCLONE CORE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. THIS COULD BE GENEROUS
GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/6. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A
TOUCH FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND SLOW THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IF
THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN...RAYMOND SHOULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 19.1N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 19.8N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 20.4N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 20.8N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z 21.0N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[hurricanes1234]

Bye Raymond, you will be missed! You've been a good hurricane and thanks for ending our streak of no major hurricanes!