WTIO21 PGTW 220930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 99.8E TO 8.8N 94.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
220900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
99.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK,
THAILAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA
INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-FORMED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230930Z. //
NNNN
TXIO28 KNES 220932
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 22/0830Z
C. 6.2N
D. 98.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F.
T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRSG. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. GT 0.2
BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
