ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

I can't speak for anyone, but I suspect the user might be basing this idea on the models that do develop the Invest take in north to the Bahamas by the end of their runs.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115561&start=20

Yes I am basing it on this + the idea that it will deepen quickly. Im not talking about the seaboard but rather the Carolinas

[HURAKAN]

if wishcasting was a source of energy, the Earth would have electricity for centuries to come!

[stormlover2013]

Lol this is all wish casting

[HurricaneDREW92]

Lol this is all wish casting

No you have a system that we all discounted yesterday strengthening right now. Many of the models that do develop it takes it in the 80-95kts region. Listen, Im an amateur but you have a moistening enviroment, a strenghthening invest over the prime area of development at the peak of the season. My guess is as good as anyones.

[blp]

if wishcasting was a source of energy, the Earth would have electricity for centuries to come!

Whose wishcasting? I only see people commenting about a system that has potential to develop in a few days.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Look at that hook of deep convection near the center...at 14.8N & 55.6W

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's stop any wishing it hits an area and focus on 97L,thanks.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Ok folks,let's stop any wishing it hits an area and focus on 97L,thanks.

I don't think anyone's wishing any harm on anyone cycloneye. Just predicting where the storm might end up. Thx.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Thought this needed to be posted again to help some people out. Its disorganized, not strengthening and conditions are unfavorable for any development

[HurricaneDREW92]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Thought this needed to be posted again to help some people out. Its disorganized, not strengthening and conditions are unfavorable for any development

Think we'll see a slightly different story in the morning

[stormlover2013]

Lol we'll it better pick up in a hurry

[Cyclenall]

I just randomly popped in here to see what everyone was saying about one of the Invests on the map, to find users actually thinking this will become something...denial is the first step...

[HurricaneDREW92]

Lol well it better pick up in a hurry

It will. 60% by next 2pm TWO. Lean back and watch stormlover2013.
Ugh...off by 10%

[stormlover2013]

U said by morning, now ur saying 2pm

[HurricaneDREW92]

U said by morning, now ur saying 2pm

Find the quote about me saying morning, please

[HurricaneDREW92]

Probably gonna be a Cat 3 or 4 max. Going for an EC landfall.

So you agree?

[blp]

Well convergence is back a little but further east of the ball of convection I would not be surprised if a llc tries to get going further east.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the short-wave IR loop tonight, it looks like convection is still displaced east of any kind of possible low-level center.

WSW shear continues to be an issue for this invest and will continue to be an issue for the next 3-4 days or so. The shear is being caused by an Upper-Level Low centered just to the north of the Dominican Republic.

That Upper-Level low should move west over the next several days and by days 4-5 end up in the NW Caribbean and weaken.

I don't see any kind of possible development for the next 4-5 days until this invest reaches the Western Caribbean, assuming it is still in tact.

The northern solution of a possible strong East Coast storm and a sooner recurve in the Central or Eastern Caribbean shown by the CMC the past several runs does not seem likely at this point.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Lol well it better pick up in a hurry

It will. 60% by next 2pm TWO. Lean back and watch stormlover2013.

Just so funny to read people predict based on no evidence.
In a quiet season y'all have provided great entertainment.
Thank you for your vivid imaginations!!

[stormlover2013]

Great post!!!