ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[jeff]

Any idea what the tides will be like in Galveston this weekend? I've got family visiting - they are driving back north on Monday. We plan to go to Galveston on Sunday - it would be nice to take them on the ferry and have it be a bit of a thrill ride for them.

Looking at total water level rises of around 1.5-2.5 feet over the weekend above MSL. Could be closer to 3.5 feet if the system spins up and heads more NW toward S TX. Swells building to near 10 feet by Sunday with significant rip current issues

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore Watch the western US/Canada ridge flip to trough. Texas ridge dies and shifts eastward. 6-10 z500 anomaly http://t.co/f36AJKzhsH

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore If there is a TC in position to come north, yes. 93L may do just that if it doesn't form too quickly.

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore -PDO w/ warm NPAC forces trough into the continent as wavelengths get longer in the Fall. This is forcing the TX ridge out.

To let you know that I moved your post from the models thread to this one.

[Ptarmigan]

1998 Frances was huge extending all the way to LA....came in around CC....seems like a good track. I do think it has potential to make cane status...

Frances could've been a hurricane if it stayed over the Gulf of Mexico longer. It had tropical storm force winds extending up to 345 miles.

[Ptarmigan]

Frances (98) was moving WNW at landfall out of the central/NW Gulf...she did not come up from the Bay of Campeche. Current GFS track is closest to Hermine only slower and larger. FIM tracks would be a rare NW to NNW to N to NNE track kind of rounding the entire TX coast. That has happened before, but not in the recent past decades.

Frances was a huge rain maker over a large area. It also eroded beaches, the worst erosion since Carla I have read. Parts of Mexico got 44 inches of rain from Frances.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html

[jeff]

Frances (98) was moving WNW at landfall out of the central/NW Gulf...she did not come up from the Bay of Campeche. Current GFS track is closest to Hermine only slower and larger. FIM tracks would be a rare NW to NNW to N to NNE track kind of rounding the entire TX coast. That has happened before, but not in the recent past decades.

Frances was a huge rain maker over a large area. It also eroded beaches, the worst erosion since Carla I have read. Parts of Mexico got 44 inches of rain from Frances.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html

NHC and HPC tracks not matching very well there. I remember the NHC version of a poorly organized TC in the NW Gulf interacting with a left over frontal boundary. Front acted like a coastal convergence lifting zone which helped spread out heavy rainfall along the US Gulf coast well east of the center. Near landfall the system finally got its act together some...but still it was a lopsided system with much of the impacts on the upper TX and LA coasts.

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

looks like a building an anticyclone over 93L

[Portastorm]

Interesting satellite loop tonight as the convection just east of the Yucatan as well as in the SW Gulf/BOC has diminished considerably. I'm not suggesting anything could/should be read into that just ... interesting.

[ROCK]

Interesting satellite loop tonight as the convection just east of the Yucatan as well as in the SW Gulf/BOC has diminished considerably. I'm not suggesting anything could/should be read into that just ... interesting.

I expected it...D-min....MLCs look good during the afternoon but peter out after sun set...been the story of 2013....you can see the circulation still offshore though. Wait for Dmax and I think we will see something better.....JMO

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the huge ULL out west. This could be a player in what helps nudge 93L more poleward. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[LaBreeze]

Will proximity to land (Mexico/Texas) inhibit much development from the looks of some of the models? Just wondering about strength (should this system develop).

[tropicwatch]

Some serious convection building north of Honduras tonight. This is becoming very interesting, does not appear to be much movement any direction at this time.

[HURAKAN]

not much yet at 850 mb

[tropicwatch]

[
not much yet at 850 mb

True but the convection is impressive.



http://tropicwatch.info

[ROCK]

very large rotation....WPAC systems come to mind in their development stages....

[ROCK]

Will proximity to land (Mexico/Texas) inhibit much development from the looks of some of the models? Just wondering about strength (should this system develop).

BOC has really ramped up storms this year....even the NAM has a 996mb low down there in a few days...NAVGEM had a 997mb a few runs ago.....very large system will need time to consolidate but as far a heat potential thats not going to be an issue...




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[CrazyC83]

The loop current is well to the west of normal on there, so if it tracks farther east, it could get ugly in a hurry.

[AJC3]

The loop current is well to the west of normal on there, so if it tracks farther east, it could get ugly in a hurry.

That's not the loop current that you're looking at, but it may be a warm ring (eddy) that separated from it. Would need a time lapse of SST analyses to say for sure. In any event, it is an area of anomalously warm water, so your point still stands.

[LaBreeze]

The loop current is well to the west of normal on there, so if it tracks farther east, it could get ugly in a hurry.

Ugly, how?

[ROCK]

The loop current is well to the west of normal on there, so if it tracks farther east, it could get ugly in a hurry.

Ugly, how?

he means if conditions aloft are good the potential is there for this to get stronger. see map above....all the dark blue is nitrous oxide for a TC....

[LaBreeze]

The loop current is well to the west of normal on there, so if it tracks farther east, it could get ugly in a hurry.

Ugly, how?

he means if conditions aloft are good the potential is there for this to get stronger. see map above....all the dark blue is nitrous oxide for a TC....

Thank you ~