ATL: INGRID - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

All depends when ridge moves out, which could be too late for a certain scenario.

[BigB0882]

Something interesting to watch, I forgot how the excitement feels!

[Alyono]

SHIPS is beyond useless as it assumes a track in the very southern BOC

[TexWx]

SHIPS is beyond useless as it assumes a track in the very southern BOC

Alyono, couldn't this be a possibility?
Or is it already to far Nward for that set up?

[Alyono]

SHIPS is beyond useless as it assumes a track in the very southern BOC

Alyono, couldn't this be a possibility?
Or is it already to far Nward for that set up?

unlikely this goes into Veracruz as BAMM says

[ROCK]

NAM at 54hr...not in any hurry to move out of the BOC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png

[ROCK]

no one posted the 18Z GFS Ensembles......spread out some at 132hr



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[TexWx]

NAM at 54hr...not in any hurry to move out of the BOC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png

If it starts there, I would think Mexico or East of Galveston. (Assuming it moves northward).

[ROCK]

NAM at 84hr.....still in BOC at 997MB

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png


next up the 0Z GFS.....stay tuned....

[Hammy]

no one posted the 18Z GFS Ensembles......spread out some at 132hr



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I haven't really payed attention to the ensembles before, and have been meaning to ask so I know that I am reading it right: are the numbers all possible locations/intensities by different ensemble members?

[PTrackerLA]

Does anyone know where to find the GFS ensemble images that show 12 or ensemble members in a checkerboard pattern? Some were posted earlier in this thread. Definitely interested to see the 00z GFS to see if it continues the northward trend or heads back to a Mexico solution.

[ROCK]

Does anyone know where to find the GFS ensemble images that show 12 or ensemble members in a checkerboard pattern? Some were posted earlier in this thread. Definitely interested to see the 00z GFS to see if it continues the northward trend or heads back to a Mexico solution.

Portastorm has that source I think....but basically Hammy is correct....the numbers represent different ensemble members from the GFS, given different conditions....different tracks...

I like the other ensemble map though....I will see what I can find.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, the "checkerboard pattern" is from the ensembles as they're laid out on the Penn State E-wall site. Here's a link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

[bamajammer4eva]

Trough looks deeper @ 84hr than 18z looked at 90 hr

18z GFS @ 90



00z NAM @ 84

[ROCK]

Yeah, the "checkerboard pattern" is from the ensembles as they're laid out on the Penn State E-wall site. Here's a link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

thanks Portastorm!! didnt mean to put you on the spot....

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091100/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_20.png

54hr......sitting in the BOC.....

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS - drifting really no where thru 72H

[ROCK]

down to 999mb so its getting stronger...waiting for an opening...

[Wx_Warrior]

moving west thru 87h

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_087_850_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=850_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

[PTrackerLA]

96 hrs basically the same spot as 18z except deeper... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_31.png