ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[HurricaneTracker2031]

:uarrow: Wow...I can see it now, "...the depression continues to intensify over the Yucatan Penninsula and is now moving towards the NW at 10mph..." Well, got to admit, 95L is doing everything it can to try and make it look like it might want to visit the 'ol U.S of A. Granted the speed is very slow yet, but wonder what the contributing factor to its more NW motion? I wonder if that north/south trough which appears as that dry slot, might be any factor???

yup

[TJRE]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

RAMMB Loop-http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Cimss Steering Layer 500-850mb-http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm2&zoom=&time=

invest 95L NRL-http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Saved SSD Floater loop.

[gatorcane]

Moving NW now but slowly:

Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 0000 UTC, 18 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.8°N and 88.6°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al952013/

[gatorcane]

This looks like the real deal...fantastic structure indeed.

It most certainly does look like the real deal. It's interesting that convection is firing a little north of the center even though the center is inland over the Yucatan. You get the feeling that once this emerges into the Gulf, it can certainly really take off. Models might be underdoing the intensity once this gets into the Gulf is my feeling at the moment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TJRE]

Belize Radar Loop

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop



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[stormkite]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHETUMAL MEXICO IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

(Projected min pressure very interesting indeed.)

Projected tracks http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_95.gif


Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

At the speed is moving I really think the recon for tomorrow afternoon is going to be canceled, by that time it will be barely back over water if at all by then.
I think the Euro has been handling it fairly well so far, it shows the vorticity to still be over land by tomorrow morning.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

One could make an argument that this has become a tropical depression overland. Convection has been increasing over a well-defined area of low pressure (as evidenced by surface obs and radar). Just needs to expand and persist, which it should have no problem doing given the fact that we're approaching diurnal maximum.

[TheStormExpert]

One could make an argument that this has become a tropical depression overland. Convection has been increasing over a well-defined area of low pressure (as evidenced by surface obs and radar). Just needs to expand and persist, which it should have no problem doing given the fact that we're approaching diurnal maximum.

What is the terrain like in the region it is heading over?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

:uarrow: Wow...I can see it now, "...the depression continues to intensify over the Yucatan Penninsula and is now moving towards the NW at 10mph..." Well, got to admit, 95L is doing everything it can to try and make it look like it might want to visit the 'ol U.S of A. Granted the speed is very slow yet, but wonder what the contributing factor to its more NW motion? I wonder if that north/south trough which appears as that dry slot, might be any factor???

Structure does look good, but not a depression yet.

[Dean4Storms]

One could make an argument that this has become a tropical depression overland. Convection has been increasing over a well-defined area of low pressure (as evidenced by surface obs and radar). Just needs to expand and persist, which it should have no problem doing given the fact that we're approaching diurnal maximum.

What is the terrain like in the region it is heading over?

Flat as Florida.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

One could make an argument that this has become a tropical depression overland. Convection has been increasing over a well-defined area of low pressure (as evidenced by surface obs and radar). Just needs to expand and persist, which it should have no problem doing given the fact that we're approaching diurnal maximum.

What is the terrain like in the region it is heading over?

The Yucatán is very flat.

[Ptarmigan]

If conditions are right, I think we could have Jerry by tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

[TexWx]

This thing is ready to rock.

[ConvergenceZone]

it will be interesting to see what the models do with it if it develops....

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.6N 90.8W TO 21.5N
95.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180139Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 88.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 814 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE, TX. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO (09L) WARNINGS (WTNT01 KNGU) FOR SIX HOURLY UPDATES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190200Z.//

[gatorcane]

95L looks like it is actually getting better organized over the Yucatan tonight despite that is is over land. Convection near the center is on the increase and there is more spin it seems. Looking rather impressive! Could be declared a depression or even a storm before it even emerges back over water if this continues...

Also looks like it is starting to gain some latitude a little to me...definitely not as much of a westerly component we saw earlier today. We might be seeing some frictional effects with land interaction and slow motion here causing some erratic wobbles.

[GeneratorPower]

I have read before that when some poorly-defined systems move over land, the friction (or some other forces) can cause the system to tighten up and look a little better. Maybe one of our more experienced posters can elaborate.