ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[Blinhart]

Local news channels here are saying its possible that this thing could split in two and one part moves with the front and the other stays behind before moving up in a little over a week.

[gatorcane]

Latest spaghetti models:

[galaxy401]

^^ Looks like the models have no idea yet where they want this storm to go.

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF still very bullish on development. Tracks it into the SW Gulf then moves it ENE after that with an 89 Knot cane strengthening by day 5:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013091718-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ronjon]

Fortunately it's the HWRF which is never right. I wonder if tampa or the west side of the peninsula has ever been hit by a hurricane from the SW GOM moving east-northeast in September?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

I am just the guidance messenger...dont shoot me! but I am also a NAVGEM/EURO hugger so I tend to follow those models. Until they change I lean on them for now.

Nah, its all in good fun. Keep on posting them. Doing a great job

[CYCLONE MIKE]

both FIM8 and FIM9 think this hangs out over the BOC for some time before moving up destroying NO....so now you have 4 models showing something similiar right now. Sure it will change....

http://fim.noaa.gov/


hey Chaser1----not sure but the GOM is fueled and ready for take off if the upper levels let it....

Rock,
tried figuring out those model runs on that site but couldn't find anything showing a storm hitting N.O. Can you post a pic or loop. Thanks.

[Dean4Storms]

both FIM8 and FIM9 think this hangs out over the BOC for some time before moving up destroying NO....so now you have 4 models showing something similiar right now. Sure it will change....

http://fim.noaa.gov/


hey Chaser1----not sure but the GOM is fueled and ready for take off if the upper levels let it....

Rock,
tried figuring out those model runs on that site but couldn't find anything showing a storm hitting N.O. Can you post a pic or loop. Thanks.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2013091700&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

[CrazyC83]

Difficult forecast to say the least...

[CrazyC83]

The Euro nailed Sandy with fronts and troughs all over the place...so I'd say it is credible at least for a potential solution.

[ROCK]

FIM8-30KM is very slow with 95L.....246hr



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[Frank P]

both FIM8 and FIM9 think this hangs out over the BOC for some time before moving up destroying NO....so now you have 4 models showing something similiar right now. Sure it will change....

http://fim.noaa.gov/


hey Chaser1----not sure but the GOM is fueled and ready for take off if the upper levels let it....

Rock,
tried figuring out those model runs on that site but couldn't find anything showing a storm hitting N.O. Can you post a pic or loop. Thanks.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2013091700&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

That run hits the MS coast more so than NOLA.... in the unlikely event it would even come to fruition... additionally, at that angle, it would create a max surge event for the MS coast if it had any kind of intensity with it...

[ROCK]

close enough that I cant tell... moving north like that it would be drawing all kinds of dry air into it. Intensity might not be an issue...

[Hammy]

This looks like it will be yet another strange track given some of the model solutions.

[Frank P]

:uarrow: close enough that I cant tell... moving north like that it would be drawing all kinds of dry air into it. Intensity might not be an issue...

I remember Isadora back in 2002 came in as a relatively dry but large TS from about the same angle.. put a good 8-9 foot storm surge in Biloxi, she had a pretty large and expanding wind field as I recall when she came in.. winds were at most 60 mph at my house... with hardly no rain I just sat in a lawn chair in my front yard and watch the surge destroy the Coliseum pier and deposit it in front of my house near the seawall...

[gatorcane]

The 00Z NAM brings it into the SW GOM and for the first time is showing it make a pretty sharp turn to the NE or ENE at the end:

84 hours:

[ROCK]

not sure its moving very much since it goes out to 84hrs.....most globals are keeping it out there for days...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013091800/nam_z500_vort_watl_29.png

[stormlover2013]

That's not a pretty sharp turn lol

[BigB0882]

The FIM track seems so odd. Why would it move due East and then due North? How often do storms move due East?

[PTrackerLA]

I find it interesting that 2002 was cited as an analog for this season a lot this summer and it's one of the last years I can remember late September storms being pulled northward from the southern GOM/BOC.