ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[blp]

Under the hood, the vorticity is not as good as last night. 500mb vorticity is much weaker and remains displaced further NE. The 700mb vorticity also is weaker. Still has a lot of work to do.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Where is everyone this morning? Clearly looks like we are in a ramp up phase.

I agree. It appears to have more convection this morning. I think our crowd has become jaded over so many false alarms this season.

This. And of course its early and people are working. Also this will be the third invest in the gulf that will interact with a front and of course the end game is the same as the others, be a sheared strung out mess if anything.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Mobile AFD this morning....

ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING A CONCENTRATED ARE OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 120 MILES
EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER. FROM THIS AREA...THE GLOBAL
MODELS BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUTLOOKS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CALL FOR A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOMETHING FORECASTERS WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A COMPLICATED FORECAST TO
BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO/CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER...WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THEIR REPRESENTATION. THE UPPER
AIR FLOW PATTERN IS SUCH THAT A POLEWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH THE
GULF SYSTEM. SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. BY THE WEEKEND...A
SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE GULF LOW AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD VERY WELL MERGE WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SINCE THIS IS A FEW DAYS OUT...WILL CARRY AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THIS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE. NOTE:
FORECASTS MAY CHANGE MARKEDLY ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE GULF LOW...ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK. STAY TUNED.

[blp]

Shear continues to decrease around 97l. I don't see why this can't get going. The danger with storms in this area in October is that they can ramp up quickly just like in the BOC. Any other year outside of 2013 and I would be very concerned with this area.

Wind Shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Wind Shear Tendenancy
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[wxman57]

The most favorable environment will be across the NW Caribbean over the next day or two. Beyond then, wind shear steadily increases as it moves northward toward the central Gulf. Possible a TD or weak TS at most, weakening as it approaches the Gulf Coast.

[jlauderdal]

Shear continues to decrease around 97l. I don't see why this can't get going. The danger with storms in this area in October is that they can ramp up quickly just like in the BOC. Any other year outside of 2013 and I would be very concerned with this area.

Wind Shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Wind Shear Tendenancy
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

the setup is lousy in the gulf as we have been saying for days, maybe something gets going today and tomorrow then it will trend way down as it heads north...no surprises here

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Dr Jeff Masters:

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Kingston, Jamaica picked up 2.60" of rain on Monday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased in intensity and organization Tuesday morning. The broad area of spin associated with 97L is growing more defined, and the storm is taking advantage of wind shear that has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as well as an upper-air anticyclone that has set up over the storm, providing good ventilation aloft. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). There is a hurricane hunter flight scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, but this flight may be rescheduled for Wednesday, due to 97L's lack of organization.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely

WInd shear is expected to remain low to moderate through Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The lack of wind shear on Tuesday and Wednesday should allow 97L to moisten the atmosphere and wall off the dry air to its northwest that is slowing down development, and I expect 97L will be close to tropical depression status by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 4 - 8" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier and wind shear will increase as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and these combined effects will likely retard development. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle, while the European model is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. Neither model shows 97L developing tropical storm-force winds. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 30%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 40% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday night, a 10% chance it will be stronger, and a 50% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

It's getting the look... Not trying to jinx it...

[Sanibel]

This would be scary in a normal season.

[gatorcane]

it is starting to get that look but like others have said, I don't want to jinx it. It should be going through some of the hottest waters in the entire Atlantic basin the next couple of days and have some decent upper-level conditions to develop.

[jlauderdal]

it is starting to get that look but like others have said, I don't want to jinx it. It should be going through some of the hottest waters in the entire Atlantic basin the next couple of days and have some decent upper-level conditions to develop.

gator,

you think the upper level conditions are going to be decent in say 3 days?

[northjaxpro]

97L is trying to take advantage of the best conditions it will probably have iin its lifespan for the next 36 hours or so. Currently, shear is light and there is an anticyclone hovering near the system. I think if it spins up, it will have to do it by Thursday evening. By Friday, shear will increase and dry air will entrain into the circulation as it enters into the GOM. I think we will see this get named Karen and it may get as strong as 50 kts at best before hostile conditions weakens the storm on its approach to the Big Bend area of FL this weekend. Still going with 35-40 kt system at best at the time of landfall.

[Blown Away]

it is starting to get that look but like others have said, I don't want to jinx it. It should be going through some of the hottest waters in the entire Atlantic basin the next couple of days and have some decent upper-level conditions to develop.

gator,

you think the upper level conditions are going to be decent in say 3 days?

Previous GFS runs had 97L moving towards NGOM as a low and the 12z bumps 97L eastward and it maintains TS strength... There were a few HWRF outlier runs that had a FL west coast landfall as a decent TS/Cat 1... I'm betting if 97L were to begin that NE turn earlier and head over the FL peninsula it might/may/possibly be conducive...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO stays at 30%-50%.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[ronjon]

it is starting to get that look but like others have said, I don't want to jinx it. It should be going through some of the hottest waters in the entire Atlantic basin the next couple of days and have some decent upper-level conditions to develop.

gator,

you think the upper level conditions are going to be decent in say 3 days?

If it stays in the eastern GOM, shear conditions won't be that bad in 96 hrs according to the GFS.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_wnatl_096_200_wnd_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=wnatl&param=200_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[wxman57]

12Z Euro develops a weak LLC tomorrow near the NE Yucatan then moves a weaker circulation or open wave northward and into the mid LA coast Sunday morning.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100118, , BEST, 0, 167N, 831W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Blown Away]

TAFB now has "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours heading NE towards Big Bend area...

[cycloneye]

NHC Marine Discussion:


MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE DUE TO PSBL TRPCL CYCLONE ENTERING BASIN LATE WED.

BIG QUESTION REGARDS INTEGRITY OF LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB...PSBL TRPCL
CYCLONE...EMBEDDED IN N-S TROUGH ALONG 83W IN NW CARIBBEAN. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK SYSTEM NW ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
CENTRAL GULF THEN DIVERGE AFTER 48 HRS. MOST DYNAMIC MODELS BRING
IT ONSHORE BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...OTHERS TURN IT MORE EAST.
FORECAST TAKE MIDDLE OF ROAD APPROACH BETWEEN AGGRESSIVE GFS AND
MORE MODERATE OFFICIAL. REGARDLESS OF EXIT POINT PLENTY OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GULF


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[gatorcane]

Could a new center being trying to form more NE of where BEST TRACK has the center underneath some of the deeper convection? Looking at the SSD vis loop, I see the old center seems to have dissipated:

BEST TRACK location: 16.7°N and 83.1°W