BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[euro6208]

2013OCT10 153000 7.0 923.2 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF -11.36 -80.59 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.58 -89.79 COMBO MET7 41.6

Current Satellite Estimate
RAW

Rare to see a TC getting numbers this high outside the west pacific...

[euro6208]

triplets...

[RL3AO]

First time looking at this today. Amazing explosive intensification the last 24 hours.

[RL3AO]

T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS





Thats quite amazing.

[Alyono]

I think this one meets the criteria for EI

[RL3AO]

2013OCT10 153000 7.0 923.2 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF -11.36 -80.59 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.58 -89.79 COMBO MET7 41.6

Current Satellite Estimate
RAW

Rare to see a TC getting numbers this high outside the west pacific...

If you think about it, it's almost similar to the west Pacific version of the GOM.

[TCmet]

Potentially dangerous information coming from IMD right now:

'Phailin' will not be a super cyclone: IMD

Latest T numbers from UW are 6.7 = 132kt. 'Super Cyclone' = 120kt. By at least one estimate, Phailin is already a Super Cyclone (roughly Cat 4+ on Saffir Simpson)

See my latest article on Phailin here, for Quartz.

[supercane4867]

I think we have the second category 5 of 2013 worldwide



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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 125kts.

02B PHAILIN 131010 1800 15.6N 89.4E IO 125 929

[supercane4867]

Blue eye on water vapor

[Alyono]

Potentially dangerous information coming from IMD right now:

'Phailin' will not be a super cyclone: IMD

Latest T numbers from UW are 6.7 = 132kt. 'Super Cyclone' = 120kt. By at least one estimate, Phailin is already a Super Cyclone (roughly Cat 4+ on Saffir Simpson)

See my latest article on Phailin here, for Quartz.

whoever posted that should be tried for murder after this makes landfall

[supercane4867]

CI7.3 RAW7.5

2013OCT10 190000 7.3 914.6 149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.63 -89.31 COMBO MET7 41.2

New Delphi ADT at 5.9

2013OCT10 190000 5.9 929.8 +0.0 112.4 5.9 5.9 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR 85.8 15.63

[Extratropical94]

T5.0 in IMD's latest advisory, forecasting a landfall intensity of 105 knots (190-200 km/h), gusting to 115 knots.

[wxmann_91]

As if the cyclone is not bad enough, there has been an ongoing multi-day blackout in Andhra Pradesh:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/o ... gana-india

[hurricanes1234]

This could become the strongest of the season worldwide here. Very intense monster tropical cyclone.

[Alyono]

T5.0 in IMD's latest advisory, forecasting a landfall intensity of 105 knots (190-200 km/h), gusting to 115 knots.

They obviously are unaware that one can break Dvorak constraints

[Alyono]

CI7.3 RAW7.5

2013OCT10 190000 7.3 914.6 149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.63 -89.31 COMBO MET7 41.2

New Delphi ADT at 5.9

2013OCT10 190000 5.9 929.8 +0.0 112.4 5.9 5.9 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR 85.8 15.63

How in the world is the ADT different? Are they using satellites with 16km resolution or something?

[hurricanes1234]

My advice to any residents there at this point would be to pray very hard. Just remain calm until the storm passes. Luckily, northern India is mountainous, which should cause rapid deterioration of the storm.

[Extratropical94]

CI7.3 RAW7.5

2013OCT10 190000 7.3 914.6 149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.63 -89.31 COMBO MET7 41.2

New Delphi ADT at 5.9

2013OCT10 190000 5.9 929.8 +0.0 112.4 5.9 5.9 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 8.14 -79.77 EYE 14 IR 85.8 15.63

How in the world is the ADT different? Are they using satellites with 16km resolution or something?

Interestingly, the raw values aren't. They're 7.5, similar to the SSD's raw numbers.
What I don't get is why a 7.x raw value for like 6/8/10 consecutive hours doesn't translate to a rapidly increasing CI-number?

[Iune]

As if the cyclone is not bad enough, there has been an ongoing multi-day blackout in Andhra Pradesh:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/o ... gana-india

The blackouts are due to the secession movement in western Andhra Pradesh that wants to become its own state--the rest of the state doesn't want to lose them (the state capital, Hyderabad, with all its development would secede with the rest of the state). These blackouts are the reason that my grandparents couldn't travel to Hyderabad (where the rest of my family stays). They'll have to wait out the storm in Guntur (where they were for the devastating 1977 and 1999 cyclones).

As for northern India, while it is rather mountainous, the storm would still have a large impact on the coastal communities; the 1999 storm killed more than 8,000 in a single district in Orissa because it devastated the port city of Paradip which is rather vulnerable to these storms.