ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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SouthDadeFish
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#1081 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:40 pm

Pressures are pretty high so far...
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Evil Jeremy
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#1082 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:41 pm

Image
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#1083 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:41 pm

looks like a circ was found near11.7N and 54.2W

212300 1140N 05428W 9666 00390 0106 +223 +212 002011 012 021 002 03
212330 1140N 05426W 9669 00385 0104 +224 +211 019008 010 025 001 03
212400 1140N 05425W 9663 00390 0104 +223 +203 021010 011 023 001 00
212430 1139N 05423W 9664 00390 0104 +224 +203 013011 011 020 001 00
212500 1139N 05422W 9668 00384 0104 +218 +204 359009 010 020 002 00
212530 1139N 05420W 9666 00386 0104 +215 +207 354007 008 018 002 00
212600 1139N 05418W 9664 00388 0104 +219 +207 347005 007 017 000 00
212630 1139N 05417W 9666 00386 0103 +221 +205 307005 005 016 000 00
212700 1139N 05415W 9664 00387 0102 +220 +205 324003 005 010 001 00

1010mb... winds so far are not close to TS intensity. Lets see what the east quad has
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#1084 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:45 pm

URNT15 KNHC 082137
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 20 20130708
212800 1141N 05412W 9671 00380 0100 +221 +209 290004 006 012 002 03
212830 1140N 05411W 9665 00385 0101 +220 +211 298005 006 /// /// 03
212900 1138N 05412W 9662 00388 0101 +221 +207 310005 006 011 001 00
212930 1137N 05413W 9666 00385 0102 +221 +205 320006 007 012 000 00
213000 1136N 05414W 9667 00386 0103 +224 +208 291007 007 014 000 00
213030 1135N 05415W 9662 00391 0104 +221 +211 299006 007 019 001 00
213100 1134N 05416W 9666 00389 0109 +208 //// 272007 009 025 003 01
213130 1133N 05417W 9671 00385 0106 +219 +213 269006 009 023 003 00
213200 1132N 05418W 9664 00391 0107 +222 +212 263005 006 021 001 00
213230 1131N 05420W 9667 00390 0108 +223 +212 269005 006 020 000 00
213300 1130N 05421W 9665 00392 0109 +222 +213 284006 006 019 000 00
213330 1129N 05422W 9667 00391 0110 +220 +214 279005 006 020 000 00
213400 1128N 05423W 9662 00397 0111 +220 +214 288004 005 019 001 00
213430 1127N 05424W 9666 00395 0112 +220 +208 284003 004 019 001 00
213500 1126N 05425W 9667 00393 0112 +222 +204 267003 004 019 000 00
213530 1125N 05426W 9668 00393 0113 +221 +202 207002 002 019 000 00
213600 1124N 05428W 9668 00393 0114 +217 +207 256003 005 020 001 00
213630 1123N 05429W 9660 00400 0116 +209 //// 245003 006 026 005 01
213700 1122N 05430W 9668 00394 0119 +207 //// 201006 008 037 011 01
213730 1121N 05431W 9667 00395 0120 +208 +208 229006 008 038 016 00
$$
;
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Re:

#1085 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:45 pm

Alyono wrote:looks like a circ was found near11.7N and 54.2W

212300 1140N 05428W 9666 00390 0106 +223 +212 002011 012 021 002 03
212330 1140N 05426W 9669 00385 0104 +224 +211 019008 010 025 001 03
212400 1140N 05425W 9663 00390 0104 +223 +203 021010 011 023 001 00
212430 1139N 05423W 9664 00390 0104 +224 +203 013011 011 020 001 00
212500 1139N 05422W 9668 00384 0104 +218 +204 359009 010 020 002 00
212530 1139N 05420W 9666 00386 0104 +215 +207 354007 008 018 002 00
212600 1139N 05418W 9664 00388 0104 +219 +207 347005 007 017 000 00
212630 1139N 05417W 9666 00386 0103 +221 +205 307005 005 016 000 00
212700 1139N 05415W 9664 00387 0102 +220 +205 324003 005 010 001 00

1010mb... winds so far are not close to TS intensity. Lets see what the east quad has


That position looks southwest of the real LLC. Let's see...
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#1086 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:45 pm

Maybe a center reformation is underway and that is the remnant old LLC?
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#1087 Postby Jevo » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:45 pm

18z GFS MSLP +45

Image

18z GFS MSLP +60

Image
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Re:

#1088 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Maybe a center reformation is underway and that is the remnant old LLC?


no reforming ..
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Re: Re:

#1089 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:49 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Alyono wrote:looks like a circ was found near11.7N and 54.2W

212300 1140N 05428W 9666 00390 0106 +223 +212 002011 012 021 002 03
212330 1140N 05426W 9669 00385 0104 +224 +211 019008 010 025 001 03
212400 1140N 05425W 9663 00390 0104 +223 +203 021010 011 023 001 00
212430 1139N 05423W 9664 00390 0104 +224 +203 013011 011 020 001 00
212500 1139N 05422W 9668 00384 0104 +218 +204 359009 010 020 002 00
212530 1139N 05420W 9666 00386 0104 +215 +207 354007 008 018 002 00
212600 1139N 05418W 9664 00388 0104 +219 +207 347005 007 017 000 00
212630 1139N 05417W 9666 00386 0103 +221 +205 307005 005 016 000 00
212700 1139N 05415W 9664 00387 0102 +220 +205 324003 005 010 001 00

1010mb... winds so far are not close to TS intensity. Lets see what the east quad has


That position looks southwest of the real LLC. Let's see...


yeah in the southwest quad
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#1090 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:49 pm

could be not TS it maybe tropical wave but strong?
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Re:

#1091 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:49 pm

Alyono wrote:looks like a circ was found near11.7N and 54.2W

212300 1140N 05428W 9666 00390 0106 +223 +212 002011 012 021 002 03
212330 1140N 05426W 9669 00385 0104 +224 +211 019008 010 025 001 03
212400 1140N 05425W 9663 00390 0104 +223 +203 021010 011 023 001 00
212430 1139N 05423W 9664 00390 0104 +224 +203 013011 011 020 001 00
212500 1139N 05422W 9668 00384 0104 +218 +204 359009 010 020 002 00
212530 1139N 05420W 9666 00386 0104 +215 +207 354007 008 018 002 00
212600 1139N 05418W 9664 00388 0104 +219 +207 347005 007 017 000 00
212630 1139N 05417W 9666 00386 0103 +221 +205 307005 005 016 000 00
212700 1139N 05415W 9664 00387 0102 +220 +205 324003 005 010 001 00

1010mb... winds so far are not close to TS intensity. Lets see what the east quad has


I don't think it got there, the LLC it is still to the east of this, notice that the recon it was still finding lower pressures as it kept moving east.
Last edited by NDG on Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1092 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:50 pm

Out to 60 hours and misses alot of Dominican republic and passing just north of the big island.....

Less land interaction on this run...

Heading toward the SE Bahamas...
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1093 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:50 pm

Recon still west of LLC:

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1094 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:52 pm

sunnyday wrote:If they keep moving things to the east, it looks like South Florida may have dodged another bullet. Is that likely? 8-) 8-)

This is not an official forecast. See the NHC or NWS for accurate info.


I wouldn't say that, if the models are right this could shift east up to 3 to 5 days but beyond that it could turn to the west so Florida as a whole is most certainly not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1095 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:52 pm

looks like it clips the northern portion of DR..if the core can miss it then it might have a chance.
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#1096 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:54 pm

Image
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Re:

#1097 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:Out to 60 hours and misses alot of Dominican republic and passing just north of the big island.....

Less land interaction on this run...

Heading toward the SE Bahamas...

gfs dont want gave up on Chantal
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#1098 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:54 pm

Recon is doing some crazy things, I guess they are trying to verify that it has a closed circulation which it verified.
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#1099 Postby Jevo » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:55 pm

18z GFS +72 MSLP

Image
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#1100 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:56 pm

:uarrow:

It's turning NW some and slowing down at 72 hours. Very warm SSTs where it is slowing down at...

500MB flow showing break in ridge over Florida at 75 hours:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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