ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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#1121 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:13 pm

HDOBS #22

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 082156
AF302 0103A CHANTAL            HDOB 22 20130708
214800 1058N 05456W 9665 00403 0123 +213 +207 015002 004 024 005 00
214830 1057N 05456W 9672 00398 //// +200 //// 193003 004 017 004 05
214900 1056N 05456W 9670 00399 0124 +212 //// 213004 005 031 008 01
214930 1055N 05454W 9658 00412 0124 +219 +216 201004 005 023 006 03
215000 1055N 05453W 9665 00406 0123 +220 +215 170005 006 017 004 00
215030 1055N 05451W 9667 00404 0123 +222 +215 161006 007 018 003 00
215100 1055N 05450W 9659 00410 0123 +219 +215 171004 008 022 005 00
215130 1056N 05448W 9665 00405 0123 +222 +213 194007 008 021 006 00
215200 1056N 05447W 9661 00409 0122 +221 +217 185008 008 021 003 00
215230 1056N 05445W 9672 00398 0122 +220 +218 200006 007 017 003 00
215300 1057N 05444W 9665 00404 0122 +220 +216 209007 007 018 002 00
215330 1057N 05442W 9664 00405 0122 +220 +214 209006 007 016 001 00
215400 1057N 05440W 9668 00401 0122 +224 +208 209006 006 015 000 00
215430 1057N 05439W 9664 00405 0122 +223 +210 202007 007 014 001 00
215500 1058N 05437W 9668 00401 0121 +224 +204 190007 008 014 001 00
215530 1058N 05436W 9663 00406 0122 +224 +200 184010 010 014 001 00
215600 1058N 05434W 9666 00403 0121 +225 +194 172010 010 015 001 00
215630 1059N 05432W 9664 00405 0121 +228 +189 185013 014 010 001 00
215700 1059N 05431W 9666 00403 0122 +230 +187 194015 016 011 001 00
215730 1059N 05429W 9668 00402 0123 +228 +189 191015 016 011 001 00
$$
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#1122 Postby Jevo » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:14 pm

18z GFS +141 MSLP

Image

+144

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Last edited by Jevo on Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1123 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:15 pm

18z has a stronger Chantal off the Florida coast >120 hours and farther north than 12z...
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#1124 Postby Jevo » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:18 pm

18z GFS 500mb Loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1125 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:18 pm

It's looking like the rare Jacksonville to Savannah hit on this run. I've seen this play out too many times before. Windshield wiper model runs. Watch for it to move back left tonight and back right tomorrow morning. At some point it will lock in on a better solution. The fly in the ointment continues to be Hispaniola and the fact of the matter is we won't know exactly what we are dealing with until after it gets past there.

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1126 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:19 pm

somethingfunny wrote:It looks like the center is partially exposed, this frame shows it clearly:



Yup. But the key is that it was more exposed earlier and the convection in the northeast quadrant is starting to wrap around and should soon cover the exposed portion since shear seems to be dropping. RECON should (hopefully) still be around as the center gets under the convection.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1127 Postby robbielyn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:19 pm

that's good news before it was completely exposed outrunning the convection.
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#1128 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:21 pm

giant burmuda high build in
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#1129 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:21 pm

we need Gulfstream IV-SP jet (G-IV) plane go in get weather round Chantel check get better Models runs
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#1130 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:22 pm

Image
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#1131 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:23 pm

I am utterly confused by recon's flight path right now...
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#1132 Postby Dave » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:24 pm

URNT15 KNHC 082217
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 24 20130708
220800 1105N 05356W 9664 00410 0130 +215 +198 168020 021 018 005 00
220830 1106N 05354W 9665 00410 0130 +215 +205 169019 020 021 003 00
220900 1106N 05353W 9670 00406 0131 +215 +205 168021 021 020 002 00
220930 1106N 05351W 9665 00410 0131 +215 +206 165022 022 020 003 00
221000 1107N 05350W 9665 00411 0131 +215 +205 166022 022 021 006 03
221030 1107N 05348W 9662 00415 0133 +212 +205 163022 024 019 006 03
221100 1109N 05349W 9665 00410 0132 +211 +207 159022 023 023 010 00
221130 1110N 05350W 9668 00408 0132 +212 +207 156021 023 025 007 00
221200 1111N 05352W 9665 00410 0131 +211 +205 160024 024 021 007 00
221230 1112N 05353W 9668 00408 0131 +213 +207 161023 025 020 005 00
221300 1114N 05354W 9670 00406 0131 +213 +198 163024 024 021 004 00
221330 1115N 05355W 9664 00411 0131 +215 +198 166023 024 022 008 00
221400 1116N 05357W 9664 00411 0131 +215 +192 169023 024 026 008 00
221430 1117N 05358W 9664 00410 0131 +210 +199 168023 024 027 007 00
221500 1118N 05359W 9668 00407 0131 +206 +206 173024 025 027 007 00
221530 1120N 05400W 9666 00408 0130 +205 //// 177024 025 025 007 01
221600 1121N 05402W 9665 00408 0130 +205 //// 177025 026 026 007 01
221630 1122N 05403W 9673 00399 0128 +205 +192 183025 026 027 004 01
221700 1123N 05404W 9660 00411 0128 +203 +193 189026 027 027 006 00
221730 1124N 05405W 9664 00407 0129 +197 +195 186026 027 031 007 00
$$
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#1133 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:25 pm

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection
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#1134 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:25 pm

deleted
Last edited by SunnyThoughts on Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1135 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:26 pm

maybe we have td not ts by 11pm td Chantal
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#1136 Postby Jevo » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:28 pm

18z GFS +162 Inland w/ Chantel's stronger brother behind her

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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1137 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:30 pm

there is also the chance that they're working with an eddy instead of the main circulation which would also indicate poor organization
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Models

#1138 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:30 pm

The GFS really didn't change much. The over pattern is the same as the 12z GFS, Chantal just gets a bit further north before turning west on the 18z. The whole east coast of Florida is at risk in my opinion. It will all come down to how much the DR disrupts Chantal and when the ridge builds back in.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1139 Postby meriland23 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:30 pm

How can they predict a new system behind her if it has not even come into fruition yet.. ?
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Re:

#1140 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:31 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:I am utterly confused by recon's flight path right now...


I'm the same way how come recons not even in the system how come the flying around outside system
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