ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

I am utterly confused by recon's flight path right now...

I'm the same way how come recons not even in the system how come the flying around outside system

Im with you somewhat, what if we were following the MLC and recon found the surface low much farther west aka severely decoupled sort of like Emily in 2011

[SouthDadeFish]

Definitely seems like the circulation center is fairly strongly tilted.

[Evil Jeremy]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[ROCK]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

We have all been watching the SAT view and the center has been semi-exposed for most of the day. That was not a MLC we were seeing exposed. Chantal is tilted with her LLC out front to the WNW....

[Blown Away]

The GFS really didn't change much. The over pattern is the same as the 12z GFS, Chantal just gets a bit further north before turning west on the 18z. The whole east coast of Florida is at risk in my opinion. It will all come down to how much the DR disrupts Chantal and when the ridge builds back in.

Agree, GFS not letting Chantal escape and the FL Peninsula is a target now, question is what will be left of Chantal at that point. So far NHC doesn't think much will be left...

[SouthDadeFish]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

No, recon's flight level winds indicate the center is out to the west of whatever convection there is. Notice the Southerly winds to the east of the center. If the center is farther east, like where you're saying it might be, recon should be find north winds on this inbound leg.

[ROCK]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I have her at 12.3N and 54W roughly....

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082226
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 25 20130708
221800 1125N 05407W 9667 00404 0129 +199 +199 184027 028 032 008 00
221830 1126N 05408W 9666 00404 0130 +196 //// 179028 029 037 014 01
221900 1127N 05410W 9672 00398 0128 +194 //// 181025 028 036 005 01
221930 1128N 05411W 9665 00403 0123 +205 +200 190022 024 027 002 01
222000 1128N 05412W 9661 00406 0121 +211 +193 195024 025 025 003 00
222030 1129N 05414W 9664 00401 0119 +215 +190 194024 025 024 003 00
222100 1130N 05415W 9666 00399 0118 +220 +194 190021 023 025 001 00
222130 1131N 05417W 9668 00396 0117 +220 +199 197020 021 024 001 00
222200 1132N 05418W 9665 00398 0116 +220 +201 195021 021 024 002 00
222230 1133N 05419W 9668 00396 0115 +220 +200 189021 022 025 002 00
222300 1134N 05421W 9663 00400 0115 +219 +200 186022 025 026 002 00
222330 1135N 05422W 9667 00395 0113 +222 +208 179017 019 026 000 00
222400 1136N 05424W 9668 00394 0114 +223 +208 186015 017 025 003 00
222430 1136N 05425W 9667 00395 0115 +214 +210 192013 014 030 015 00
222500 1137N 05426W 9657 00401 0116 +198 //// 180016 019 053 017 05
222530 1138N 05428W 9663 00396 0113 +212 +210 165006 013 024 004 03
222600 1138N 05429W 9668 00393 0112 +217 +206 167005 006 020 001 00
222630 1138N 05431W 9668 00392 0112 +218 +212 186008 012 021 001 00
222700 1138N 05433W 9668 00391 0112 +219 +215 164004 011 019 002 00
222730 1138N 05434W 9668 00392 0111 +224 +209 103002 005 017 002 03
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I have her at 12.3N and 54W roughly....

Yeah, my bad, I was looking at some outdated imagery on Google Earth. Whoops.

[Alyono]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

what you have is an image. What I am looking at is the hard data. The data so far clearly shows the center beyond a reasonable doubt ahead of the convection with pressures well above Stewart's estimate

[NDG]

All day long the LLC has been semi exposed but not completely exposed with most of the convection to the south and east of it.

[BUCMAN48]

Not only east coast of FL but possibly The West Coast of Florida

[Dave]

Also NHC's hdobs are way behind on updates and so is the raw data feed, it's faster but not much. I've got a jar of molasses in here that's faster than the NHC server is today. HDOBS 24 just updated on NHC and I've had it out for 15 minutes.

[SFLcane]

Tonight should be interesting..(maybe) trying to rap around

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM out 120hrs....gets smashed by DR...whats left heads wnw under Cuba and slows down.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Alyono]

conditions actually may be somewhat favorable once this moves into the Bahamas. Not sure why NHC is saying unfavorable there.

That is why CMC and GFDL are intensifying this in that area

[BobHarlem]

The western edge of Chantal is starting to show up on Barbados radar which you can see at
http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... Driver.php

Flhurricane is doing a long term recording of it at This link.

[Jevo]

Someone do the Big Googly eyed Emote for Chantel's big brother making landfall in the same place in 2 weeks at +348 (obviously its a long term forecast and subject to large track and intensity errors)

[NDG]

or you were all tracking an MLC and the LLC has in fact raced well ahead of the convection

Do you know something that we don't? Because everything we have indicates the LLC is chugging along to the east of whatever recon is looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

what you have is an image. What I am looking at is the hard data. The data so far clearly shows the center beyond a reasonable doubt ahead of the convection with pressures well above Stewart's estimate

I still believe that they never reached the true COC on the initial pass because the pressure was still falling when they turned towards the SW quadrant of the storm.

[Evil Jeremy]