ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Guidance.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU JUL 25 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130725 1800 130726 0600 130726 1800 130727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 37.0W 17.5N 41.4W 18.0N 45.6W 18.4N 49.7W
BAMD 16.4N 37.0W 17.4N 40.0W 18.3N 42.9W 19.0N 45.5W
BAMM 16.4N 37.0W 17.5N 40.6W 18.4N 44.1W 19.1N 47.2W
LBAR 16.4N 37.0W 17.1N 40.2W 17.9N 43.8W 18.5N 47.5W
SHIP 45KTS 41KTS 41KTS 39KTS
DSHP 45KTS 41KTS 41KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130727 1800 130728 1800 130729 1800 130730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 53.6W 20.1N 60.7W 21.4N 67.7W 22.5N 75.0W
BAMD 19.5N 47.7W 19.3N 51.4W 18.0N 55.0W 16.9N 58.5W
BAMM 19.6N 50.4W 20.4N 56.5W 20.9N 62.2W 21.1N 67.7W
LBAR 19.0N 51.0W 19.6N 57.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 44KTS 46KTS 40KTS
DSHP 39KTS 44KTS 46KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 37.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 33.8W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 30.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

[Hurricaneman]

This weakening was expected by the NHC as the mid level is moving slower than and low level flow but the MLC is forecast to catch up to the LLCC and Dorian is expected to strengthen in after 48hrs

[TheStormExpert]

Here's another look at the current shear. Looks to be decreasing in the short term, but look what may be ahead in the NE Caribbean as it makes it approach by those islands.

[Janie2006]

At the moment the shear isn't atrocious, from Dorian's point of view. I still don't see much to dissuade me from my earlier thinking. While we know things change (that's life!) there is a considerable amount of shear to overcome down the road.....Chantal outraced herself earlier in July, in part due to that ridge. Turning almost due west would be quite bad for Dorian's health....yes, that is a 1034 ridge north of him, and if he touches the mountains of Hispaniola.......

Where's my tombstone gif?

Still early in the game.

[tolakram]

Keep in mind analyzed shear is always after the fact, plus many times shear is hard to analyze.

In this case the problem is not static shear (not sure if that's the term), but the fact the LLC is racing westward and outrunning the MLC.

[cycloneye]

Today's TCPOD was updated to add a NOAA surveillance mission for next Sunday.

NOUS42 KNHC 251800
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EDT THU 25 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-055 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS..........................(OUTLOOK CHANGED)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SURVEILLANCE
MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FOR 28/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES FOR TROPICAL
STORM DORIAN AT 28/1200Z NEAR 19.8N 57.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS...........................(NO CHNAGES)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty notable shift west in the latest global model cycle. CMC, UKMET, GFS all "wind-shield-wipering" away from the recurve scenario. Still too early to latch on to any particular solution or trend, but if this persists for another couple of model cycles, we may have more to worry about in the islands and/or FL. We shall see ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_04.gif

being that the operational gfs is on the far left of the all the ensemble members makes it a little hard to believe. the split between all the members should be what to follow.

[GCANE]

Big overshooting top just about smack on top of the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251115.GIF

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251100.jpg

If I am not mistaken TRMM is swinging by at about this time.

We'll see if its a hot tower. Could give it a big shot of adrenaline.

[SFLcane]

Global models aren't really developing Dorian from what I can see. GFDL and HWRF both have open wave approaching the Bahamas.

[Janie2006]

I can't recall any storms that formed near Dorian's location up to this point in July that *haven't* recurved before reaching Florida or the eastern seaboard. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

[fci]

Surveillance mission makes sense. If there IS a Tropical Storm northeast of the islands still headed WNW, they are really going to want to sample the atmosphere all around it to get a fix on where it is headed. If there is no curve started shortly thereafter and it is still chugging towards the W or WNW, lots of questions to be answered on where he is headed.
Long time from now and plenty of time to cancel the mission.

[gatorcane]

Global models aren't really developing Dorian from what I can see. GFDL and HWRF both have open wave approaching the Bahamas.

The 12Z Intensity guidance graphic....not good consensus but generally the models are maintaining Dorian as a tropical storm through the next 5 days:

[Mouton]

The late cycle models all seem in very good agreement at 120 hrs, north of PR near 22N 67w moving WNW. With the exception of clipper, a climatology based model, the early track models are mostly all in the same general area.

Intensity estimates seem to be in the 60-70mph area at that time. So, given the mostly zonal flow from the west expected over the next 7 or so days, could this be a South Florida problem in ten days?

My posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation
~~
The 12z Euro is in line with the rest of the guidance taking Dorian (a very weak Dorian) through the keys and into the gulf. Pretty good consensus on no re-curve at this point.

[Blown Away]

18z

[cycloneye]

ATCF updated the 18z Best Track and is up again to 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072518, , BEST, 0, 164N, 370W, 50, 999, TS

[AtlanticWind]

The 12z global models (GFS CMC Nogaps Euro) all show a weak storm or wave.

[Blown Away]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html

Interesting they see Dorian as TS on day 5 and a low on day 6/7 and generally moving westward...Maybe we see long range intensity going down with next NHC advisories??

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z guidance at 50kts to start.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC THU JUL 25 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130725 1800 130726 0600 130726 1800 130727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 37.0W 17.5N 41.4W 18.0N 45.6W 18.4N 49.7W
BAMD 16.4N 37.0W 17.4N 40.0W 18.3N 42.9W 19.0N 45.5W
BAMM 16.4N 37.0W 17.5N 40.6W 18.4N 44.1W 19.1N 47.2W
LBAR 16.4N 37.0W 17.1N 40.2W 18.0N 43.8W 18.5N 47.5W
SHIP 50KTS 48KTS 47KTS 45KTS
DSHP 50KTS 48KTS 47KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130727 1800 130728 1800 130729 1800 130730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 53.6W 20.1N 60.7W 21.4N 67.7W 22.5N 75.0W
BAMD 19.5N 47.7W 19.3N 51.4W 18.0N 55.0W 16.9N 58.5W
BAMM 19.6N 50.4W 20.4N 56.5W 20.9N 62.2W 21.1N 67.7W
LBAR 19.0N 51.1W 19.6N 57.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 47KTS 40KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 47KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 37.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 33.8W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 30.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

[SFLcane]

On a suiside mission if those model pan out