ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Surveillance mission makes sense. If there IS a Tropical Storm northeast of the islands still headed WNW, they are really going to want to sample the atmosphere all around it to get a fix on where it is headed. If there is no curve started shortly thereafter and it is still chugging towards the W or WNW, lots of questions to be answered on where he is headed.
Long time from now and plenty of time to cancel the mission.

Yeah, also, Dorian could be a sheared and weak mess of a storm by that time it nears its approach to the islands. A weaker Dorian would stay westward, with the chance of curving northward only being if it is a stronger, vertically stacked storm. It is 50/50 right now regarding the surveillance mission. It could get cancelled as well, dependent upon what kind of shape Dorian will be in 5 days. A due west motion from here would run it right into the islands and would kill the system off by the time it reaches Hispaniola.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg
~~~~~~~~
To me Dorian looks better organized then it did earlier.

[SFLcane]

Convection flaring up over the llc CDO expanding

[northjaxpro]

Dorian , compared to earlier today, does look better right now. Convection is building again around the center of circulation.

[Weatherboy1]

Newest NWS discussion out of Miami this afternoon continues to talk about trough lifting out and ridge building in early next week. Could block any recurvature if this verifies ... assuming there's a system left at that point. Intensity forecasting in the long range is very iffy, so hard to know if global models are on to something by weakening Dorian or if he can maintain his strength over time ...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TO ALONG
OR JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT OUT...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WILL HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT INTERESTS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[Aric Dunn]

trying to make a come back. may have just been a small surge of sal looks like it might be abating some...

[jlauderdal]

Newest NWS discussion out of Miami this afternoon continues to talk about trough lifting out and ridge building in early next week. Could block any recurvature if this verifies ... assuming there's a system left at that point. Intensity forecasting in the long range is very iffy, so hard to know if global models are on to something by weakening Dorian or if he can maintain his strength over time ...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TO ALONG
OR JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT OUT...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WILL HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT INTERESTS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

they seem bullish on it by the mere fact they are mentioning it this far out

[Aric Dunn]

The easterly surge of sal can be seen here... if it can keep it out there is really nothing to its west in terms of sal.. unlike chantal..

[blp]

The 12z global models (GFS CMC Nogaps Euro) all show a weak storm or wave.

I would not focus on intensity at this point considering how bad they all did with this storm a few days ago. Everyone one of them had this either opening up or a week system. This thing is almost a hurricane.

I read earlier a post by Wxman57 that made a lot of sense the intensity models sample a large area and you might have unfavorable conditions 100 miles away and not over the system so I think with this small system the intensity forecast is going to be quite tricky for the models.

[Aric Dunn]

notice the upper level cirus clouds expanding westward... tells up that the de coupling earlier was from a easterly surge in the low levels and not upper level sw winds

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[ROCK]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

[StormTracker]

Yeah Aric, on the loop earlier today you could see where Dorian ingested a decent amount of SAL from the west and that's probably part of the reason (along with some mild shear) that he is having some problems in the short term.

[blp]

The easterly surge of sal can be seen here... if it can keep it out there is really nothing to its west in terms of sal.. unlike chantal..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg[/img]

I think it will keep it at bay with that mositure bubble it is in. It helps that it is now reaching warmer waters.

[Tireman4]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

Stop that Rock. No....LOL....just for that, go run a mile. .....LOL.

[cycloneye]

Dorian is a pesky storm dealing with all kind of adversities but is still hanging there.

[fci]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

Well being one of those that relies on Climo most of the time; I would be shocked if the GOM verified for Dorian.
Wxman57 showed the map on one of the threads and Dorian would be the first to do that.
So, yeah, I will probably join witness protection if that happens.......

[northjaxpro]

cycloneye, for me, I have always been fascinated by these tiny, smaller scaled tropical cyclones like Dorian through the years. These systems seem to always have tricks up their sleeve. All tropical cyclones have that characterisic obviously, but I think of small tropical cyclones like Humberto and how it exploded in less than 24 hours to being the fastest intensifying cyclone before landfall ever. These small tropical cyclones can be very tricky in forecasting, which is why I am so intrigued how Dorian will fare as time progresses.

[wzrgirl1]

So I have reservations at a really nice hotel in Key West for one week from tomorrow. Cancel, go, or wait a couple more days? I think I can cancel 72 hours out. Thanks in advance.

[fci]

Newest NWS discussion out of Miami this afternoon continues to talk about trough lifting out and ridge building in early next week. Could block any recurvature if this verifies ... assuming there's a system left at that point. Intensity forecasting in the long range is very iffy, so hard to know if global models are on to something by weakening Dorian or if he can maintain his strength over time ...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TO ALONG
OR JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT OUT...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WILL HAVE ANY
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT INTERESTS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

they seem bullish on it by the mere fact they are mentioning it this far out

The Miami NWS used to shy away from mentioning systems this far out but lately they have been much more up front than they used to be. Even earlier this year with Chantal; they were mentioning her several days out with reminders to always be ready. Used to have to rely on Melbourne for candor but Miami is stepping up nowadays.

[Aric Dunn]

latest frame convection really beginning to make a nice come back

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html